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{"sheet":"User's Guide","index":0,"n_rows":61,"n_cols":4,"rows_kept":61,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[[57,1,57,3],[1,2,5,2],[21,1,21,3],[24,1,24,3],[27,1,27,3],[30,1,30,3],[11,1,13,1]]}
[null,null,null,"Last updated: 8/27/2014"]
[null,null,"Tanzania: Mafia Island Airport"]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[null,"ERR Version","Original ERR","Closeout ERR"]
[null,"Date of ERR","2007-08-24","2014-08-27"]
[null,"Amount of MCC funds","$372.8 million total for Transport Project","$14.1 million"]
[null,"Project Description","Access to Mafia Island is limited by the poor condition of its airport and lack of feasible alternative transportation options. Resurfacing the airport’s runway and improving other airport facilities will allow for easier, more efficient, and safer access to the island, resulting in increased tourist and business travel to and from the mainland and additional jobs on the island.","Access to Mafia Island is limited by the poor condition of its airport and lack of feasible alternative transportation options. Resurfacing the airport’s runway and improving other airport facilities is expected to decrease aircraft operating costs and reduce the chance of aviation incidents during takeoff and landing.  These changes may lead to less expensive airfare to Mafia Island, resulting in an increased number of visitors."]
[null,"Benefit streams included in ERR","Increased tourist and business travel ","Aircraft operating cost savings"]
[null,null,null,"Flight safety improvements"]
[null,null,null,"Decreased operating costs"]
[null,"Costs included in ERR (not borne by MCC)","Operations and maintenance","Operations and maintenance"]
[null,"ERR estimations and time horizon","17.5% over 20 years","1.2% over 20 years"]
[]
[]
[]
[null,"Table of Contents"]
[null,"Activity Description"]
[null,"One should read this sheet first, as it offers a summary of the project, a list of components, and states the economic rationale for the project."]
[]
[null,"ERR & Sensitivity Analysis"]
[null,"This worksheet highlights key assumptions and summarizes how the ERR may change due to varying costs and benefits."]
[]
[null,"Assumptions"]
[null,"Lists the financial, economic and logistical assumptions used in the analysis."]
[]
[null,"ERR"]
[null,"This worksheet presents the aggregated costs and benefits from the project activities and calculates the ERR and NPV."]
[]
[null,"Costs"]
[null,"Lists the detailed investment costs by year."]
[]
[null,"Aircraft"]
[null,"Estimates the changes in aircraft operating costs resulting from the improved runway."]
[]
[null,"Safety"]
[null,"Estimates the reduction in aviation incidents and associated reduction in insurance claims with and without project."]
[]
[null,"Tourism"]
[null,"Estimates the number of flights, passenger arrivals and visitor spending per year with and without project."]
[]
[null,"Demand"]
[null,"Contains a demand equation to estimate the change passenger arrivals resulting from a change in the price of airfare."]
[]
[null,"Arrivals"]
[null,"For reference, a chart that shows the number actual and projected of passenger arrivals from 1999-2030, with and without project."]
[]
[null,"Sensitivity"]
[null,"Shows the results of a multi-parameter sensitivity analysis using a 10,000 trial Monte Carlo simulation."]
[]
[null,"Beneficiaries"]
[null,"Estimates the number of project beneficiaries."]
[]
[null,"Poverty Scorecard"]
[null,"This worksheet shows the cost effectiveness of the project broken out into different poverty categories."]
[]
[null,"References"]
[null,"Lists documents cited within this workbook."]

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[]
[null,"Tanzania: Transport Sector Project"]
[]
[null,"Mafia Island Airport Rehabilitation"]
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[null,"Activity Design History"]
[]
[null,"Original Project"]
[]
[null,"Access to Mafia Island is limited by the poor condition of its airport and lack of feasible alternative transportation options. Resurfacing the airport’s runway and improving other airport facilities will allow for easier, more efficient, and safer access to the island, resulting in increased tourist and business travel to and from the mainland and additional jobs on the island."]
[]
[null,"Project Changes at Closeout"]
[]
[null,"No substantial changes to the scope of the project, although the cost increased."]
[]
[]
[null,"Activity Components"]
[]
[null,"MCC Funding will be used to rehabilitate and upgrade the airport on Mafia Island. MCC funding will support:"]
[null,"1.   Refurbishment of the runway, apron and taxiway, establishment of boundary security, refurbishment of the fire station, refurbishment of the terminal building and its water supply, and installation of communication equipment, the scale and scope of which will be contingent on the findings of a strategic environmental assessment."]
[null,"2.   Project coordination and construction supervision."]
[null,"3.   Additional environmental assessments, together with any resulting resettlement action plans and environmental management plans."]
[null,"4.   Capacity building at the Tanzania Airports Authority (“TAA”) related to improvements in strategic maintenance planning and management of routine and periodic maintenance contracts."]
[]
[]
[null,"Economic Rationale"]
[]
[null,"Original Project ERR"]
[]
[null,"Resurfacing the airport’s runway and improving other airport facilities will allow for easier and cheaper access to the island, resulting in increased tourist and business travel to and from the mainland, which translates to more dollars spent in the local economy for tourism-related businesses. Currently, approximately 12,000 passengers arrive at the airport each year, including 7,000 for leisure and holiday trips and 400 for business travel.  The number of visitors to Mafia Island is estimated to increase by 10% post upgrade and then experience an annual growth rate of 6%. Without the upgrade, there is no expected post-project increase and annual growth in number of visitors is estimated at 4%, the local growth rate of GDP for Mafia Island. Travelers stay for an average of three nights and spend approximately US$100 per night. The increase in visitor nights on Mafia Island translates to an increase in annual visitor spending of greater than US$900,000 five years after the rehabilitation and upgrade of the airport."]
[null,"In addition to increased passenger traffic, other benefit streams were analyzed, but not included in the model. Increases in the volume of freight arriving at and departing from Mafia Island airport were examined along with increased fisheries production. Neither of these benefit streams was included as tourism is likely to be the main sector affected by the activity."]
[]
[null,"Closeout ERR"]
[null,"The paving and extension of the runway as well as other improvements to airport facilities will decrease aircraft operating costs and increase safety by decreasing the risk of aviation incidents.  Paved runways are less susceptible to breaking and to discharging foreign object debris that can cause damage to aircrafts, and the smoother surface should also reduce the frequency and cost of routine maintenance.  Because planes undergoing maintenance are also unable to generate revenue, there is an opportunity cost to the airline if a repair cancels a flight.  Reduced maintenance from a better runway will keep more planes in the air rather than the shop."]
[null,"Better runways should also reduce the risk of aviation incidents - aircraft leaving the runway, a blown tire or an accident that destroys the aircraft.  Although the risk of an accident at Mafia is small due to the increasing safety of aviation worldwide, the losses from an accident would result in large insurance claims.  By reducing the risk of incidents and accidents, the overall cost of insurance claims should also decline."]
[null,"As an integral part of the original program logic, increased tourism is included as a benefit in this model.  However, an extensive literature review could not find any links between improved airside facilities and increased tourism, especially at small regional airports. Sometimes, airport infrastructure investments can increase passenger traffic by reducing airport congestion and wait times, improving the passengers' experience.  However, congestion is not an issue at Mafia Airport, so the investment is unlikely to directly drive changes in passenger traffic."]
[null,"Despite these misgivings, increased tourism was included as a benefit because reduced aircraft operating costs, combined with steadily increasing demand for travel to Mafia, could induce new airlines to enter the market.  The resulting competition would reduce the price of airfare, thereby increasing passenger traffic at Mafia Airport.  It is unlikely that the full cost savings would filter down to passengers,  although we do not know the actual proportion that would.  Therefore, this model assumes that all aircraft operating cost savings will be passed on to consumers in the form of reduced airfare, so the estimates should be treated as a generous assumption about the jump in traffic that will take place following completion of the project."]
[null,"Even with these somewhat generous assumptions, the Mafia Airport Activity does not generate an ERR near the hurdle rate.  Ultimately, the unexpected cost increases between project design and completion drove this outcome.  Pre-compact appraisals estimated the cost of the activity at $6.6 million, which generated a healthy 17.5% ERR, but the final investment cost was 113% higher ($14.1 million).  Inserting the new cost estimates into the old model, even without updating air traffic projections, which now appear overly optimistic, the baseline ERR decreases to 9.5% and a negative NPV.  To overcome the high costs of the project, the post-compact jump in passenger traffic will need to be at least 16% over the counterfactual."]
[]
[]
[null,"Last updated: 8/27/2014"]

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["Data blocks"]
["CB_Block_0"]
["㜸〱敤㕣㕢㙣ㅣ㔷ㄹ摥㌳摥㔹敦慣敤搸㡤搳㑢㑡㘹㑤㑢㈹搴挱㡤搳㠴戶㐰〸扥㌴㌷㥣搸㡤㥤ㄴ〴㘸㌳摥㍤ㄳ㑦戳㌳攳捥捣㍡㜱愹搴ちちㄴ㐱㐱攲㈶ち攵愲ち㈱昱挲攵㠱㔲㉥㉦㐸㐸㈰㔴㄰て昰挰攵愱㈰〴て㈰ㄴ㠹ㄷㅥ㤰攰晢捥捣散捥敥㝡挷敥戶〵ㄷ昹㌸晥㝤收摣收㥣昳㕦捦晦㥦㐹㑥攴㜲戹㝦㈳昱㉦㔳㥥㤹ㅢㄶ搷㠳㔰㍡ㄳ㌳㕥慤㈶㉢愱敤戹挱挴㤴敦㥢敢㜳㜶㄰昶愱㐱愱㙣愳㍥搰换㠱晤㤰㉣㤶搷愴ㅦ愰㤱㥥换ㄵ㡢㠶㠶㝡づ挲摦㤱攴挱㘰慦挱㍣挰搲捣昴晣昲〳ㄸ㜵㌱昴㝣戹㙦散㕣搴昷昰攴攴〴㝥づㅥ扣㝢㘲晦扥戱㤹㝡㉤慣晢昲戰㉢敢愱㙦搶昶㡤㉤搴㤷㙢㜶攵ㅤ㜲㝤挹扢㈸摤挳㜲㜹晦㥤换收挱扢㈷てㅥ㍡㘴摤㜳捦摤㠳㜸㜵敥昴捣昴㠲㉦慤攰㈵ㅡ㔳攷㤴て捥捡㡡捤戵㐹改摢敥㠵㠹㤹㘹晣㑢捤ㅦ㑦㜷㑤㉣慥㐸ㄹ昲搵搲㤷㙥㐵〶〶㍡づ㌸㔳㐱㔰㜷㔶戹㜹㠶㜳ㄴ㑢慤㤸㐱愸㍢㌳戲㔶㌳㥣㘴搴愲㌳㡦扤慢㤹敢㠳捥愲㜴〳㍢戴搷散㜰扤攰㉣㘱愰敡㤰㜳㌶㤰㘷㑣昷㠲㍣㙤㍡㔲㜷㡥搵敤㙡㍥㑡戹扥摢㤲㈱搲ㄳ㔳换㥦㤸ち㥣㤹ㄵ搳㔷㌳ち戸㌱ㄹ㙤㡦晡㤵搶戶户㜴ㅦ㤷㔳㔷㙦攰㤸户㜶㙦㠷㥡㜳愶摦㘸㌹摥扤㘵扣昸搶ㄹ摣搱扤㝤㙡㡦㕡晢扣愱㝢ㅦ戵㤵慤慤挵㐰㑣摦㙡㐷戱ㄸ愳㐰搰㑦㔰㈴㈰〲㡤ㄲ挱〰挱㈰㠰挸晦〳㕣㤲敥挸㉡慤㙣㙡攵㘵慤㕣搱捡㔵慤㉣戵戲愵㤵㉦㘸攵ㄵ慤㙣㙢攵〷戴昲㐵戴㐹㔲戱扦㕦㡢搳㕦㔶扦㜳㜳敥搷扦㍢昹昸㉦㝥㜹搷户㈶㝥晢晤挱㕤㘸㜴㕦㍣愹㔹摦扣〴㔲㙢㔲昱㠱㠹晤晣搹㥣㉢挰ㄴ搶㈱敢㉥㙢㜲戲㝡㘸扦㜹愷愹㜳㔹ㄹ挸㙦㈱㤴ㄱ戴ㅤ戴敥户摤慡㜷㐹攱敥㠶㘹㌳㤰捤㡤ㅢ㡦敢愶扤扡㕢つ㕥戵㜱攵㘲㘸㠶昲晡昶扡收㈰ㅤ摤ㄶ挱㔶㌲㔰敦扢戱扤摢㌹戳㔶㤷㔳㤷敤愸晡搵㙤搵捥㠲敦㉤㜷慦㍤敡换〷ㅢ戵ㅤ㌳㥡㠲㔰㕢㔳㘳㜷慣㌲慡㡡收㌵㌶戳攲〵搲㔵搳ㅢ㜷ㄶ散捡㐵改㉦㑡㡡㐴㔹㔵㑢扤㥡㔵㌱搷㡦捦扢㔸㈸戸戵㝡㜳扡搴扡昷㜲〸㘶㤶㔵捣㜷㔵晡攱晡㤲戹㕣㤳搷戴㌴㠹摥㠹㡡扤㉤挵㐷扤㑡㍤㤸昱摣搰昷㙡慤㌵㔳搵㌵ㄳ㤲愶㝡捡慢捡㝣㍥愷㠴〲〴㙥㕦㥦㄰戹摢扢昳㠲㐲㐴ち挵㘴攴敢㕡挹㙥攲っ㔶㠷㔵搴㈴㘹㔲㝢敤㈶㠳㜱扥㑡挶㘴㜰㘰㙡㑤搴ㅦ㝣改敢㌷ㄹ戶㠱戹㤷户戱愶㡤挶慢扦㜷㑤扡攱㜱搳慤搶愴㥦愹晤〴㘷㘴っ〳攸㔷㈰㄰扡敥ㅥ㔵㥤戸㉣搶昵㑢㜶㌵㕣㈹慣㐸晢挲㑡㠸㌲㘸挸㘲㤱㕢摢㤱㡣慢㔰㘴散㈶ㄸ〵㈸㤵㜲㠵㍤㙣㔴㈸㈱攵㜴㑡愷っ㕥㙥ㄱ攴散搷挲换㠳搶㔱扢ㄶ捡㐸㈸て㕢挰㐸愴搵ㄴ晡㠶㐸愲扥㔹㠹ㄴ挶ㅥ㙢〶㔴㙡摡㙥戸摥攴摢づ㉥㠹㠸㘸㐷ㄶ㙣㍢㔹㐰㔱搰㉡て㌲㜸つ㐴搳㈶つ戲ㅢ愷㠸㠸㙣㤰愱搹㌱㜲㉢㤱戱㝤㠶㡣㐰晢㌴ㄱ戲昵晥敥㌲㠲挴摥㐹愴散搴㤵ㅦ㜷愴搹㐶戶㝣㈴捤慥挶挶ㄹ搷㄰㕣㑢㜰ㅤ挱㕥〰昱㘷㐸㌸㑡㌹攴㕢㤳昱㉡㍣ㅢ㌷㄰扣ㅡ〰昲挹愰捣㠹㐵ㄵ㙤愸慤搸㤱㙣㌷〴㍢㔹ㄹ挵㤱㈸愲㘵摣戰㌳㠷ㅣ㠵攸搸敡摣ㅥ扡㌶慦㜴散敢扡搳㘶㝡㌹愴挸㡣愶改戵㙥搲㌴扤ㄱ㙣摡愳摥扡〹㕤㡤㌱㠲搷〰㤴㡣㥢〹愱㕣㘸昰㙥捤愲愷㐹昹㡡㌰㡢㈲㘳愸㐷〵ㅦㄳ㌲㡦〰ㄹ㐲慥攳昸戲㘳㐳搳ㅣㅣ户㕥昱㌶昴扥敥晣ㅤ㈳扤㑤㙦敥攸ㅤ晡㡢㕥愰ㄵ㝤ぢ搸㑢晣扥慢㡥戹ㄵ搵挶敢〸㙥〳㘸搳㌱㍣㝤扦㔰㑦㠱㌲㡢㥤ㄴ收㜶搳敢愲慣摣愵昵㔵愹㌴搰愰戵㘴晡ㄷ㘴〸て挶㠹㔹搸挲㥥敦换ㅡづ戵㔵㔵挰昳换戵慤㠵挱㔱摦㜳㔸扥㘳㈳〷慦〸挵㤰捦㙢㝤戹㌶ㅢ㌹挳搶㑣昹㥣㔲㤴㐳ㅤ㝣㘷㜷㈱㤱敡搴㑡㕥散㤷㝤扥摣㤱㈴㍤㐸㤲㌷㘰㕢㡤摢〱㈰㈵挴慦扢㑡㤴㝤㙣昶㐶搵慣搵㘲愵㠷㉦攳㜴搲收㐳散㤰㈳〳㤱挳㜶ㅡ晥㠳㘰挸㔹戴㥤㠶戰ㄸ㜰ㄶ愴㕦㠱㙦挱慥挹㔲攴㤶愵愸搹㤱ㄵ慦㄰㔹搱搷搷㜱㥥捥昰慦㈹㍡㘹㤳ㄲ㤹摣㥥㔹㤹㜱ㄶ㙦ㄲㄵ摤㤰ㄴ㉡ㄹ慥愱㠶〴㈲攵戱敤㡥㠸改㐱挴摣㠱㡤㌳昶ㄳ㑣ㄲㅣ〰搰㝦づ㐹戳搵㡤㘷㌸慣㝦㡤㉥敤㜲㌹㔷㈴ㅡ㤴㡢昰戹慥挲敡㄰㕦昳㈶㠲扢〰摡捣ㅦ㍡㈰㌳〸㔱愱㍣㐵㠸㉡㡣㘱㥤戳攵㈵搲挰㉥ぢ㠱愵㤹㝡㄰㝡づ㈳㑢㐳搶慣㜷摡ぢ㘷敤㘰ㄵ㤱愸㔱㉢捥摣扦㈲㕤㔰㤷て摢愷慤捣㕢㕤㤵㔵挳㕡昴敡㄰㙤㈷㘶户挳挱ㅣ摢〱㕢㔲㥤捤㌵㠱搴摢昹ㄸ㐳〸散戴昲户搲ㅢ扢㈵敦㌷て㝤挳捤ㅤ㕤戲挳㥡ㅣ戰㈲愶㘳扥㘸㘱ㄷㄱ㌹愸昶㕢㑢㉢扥㤴戳㐳搶㌱摦慥搶㙣㔷ㄲㄹ戰㌱ㄹ慣㥢㤳ㄷ㄰㈵㔸昰ㄸ〳昴摣㈱㙢挹㌷摤㘰搵㘴㐰㜱㝤㜷换㤳ち㡢攸搶戴敤〶㜸㡤挲㈲昳挳搶攲㡡㜷〹ㄱ摢扡攳ㅥ㌳㔷㠳㙤㠱ㄵㄲ㝤㤴ㄴ㙡㠴㈶㌴㑤ㄴ戵㘲慦昸攱㠱㍣㤷㈳敦攵〹ㄴ慥㜲㍡㝤收ㄹ摡㥢㜶㝤ㅣ愳愱㥤捥㌹つ㈲㝡搴㈸散换㤴挲攴㔴攳ㅥ昶㜹㌳挰挹㘳㘷㑦㌴㈳㜳㉦㉡㘶慤搳换㥦㈱攳ㄵ㔹㌴〲㈱昴搱敤㡡㐸㠵㘵愴ㅣ㜰㈰㌰捥愷㜶昲㉢㔹慡つ愹㙦㔷㌳㝢ㄴ㤱愴㐱㙢捥㕣㤶㌵挴愳ㅤ㌳摣ㄵ㍤搰㡣㜵捣㕡㄰搷捤㜸㡥㘳㤲戴㐸㤶㡢ㄵ㤳ㄴ㍣㔵て扤㔳戶㙢㔸〰㡡晥攲㈲昳㌲㡡捣换慡㘸搰㍡挳搰愰捡㜳㉣敦㠲改摢攱㡡㘳㔷㡡㝣㘰昸㙥㕢搰㈴㤸㥣㤲㌷㐹㠹捣ㄸ㙢戳收捦挲㘴ぢ㈶㠰敥〹挸㔱㙥ㅤ搱て捡搵㐴〱㍦愲㐷挷ㄲ〴㡣昲㤴ㅡ㙦挵㘸扡扡ㅤ〱㤱愳搲㤵攴づ挶㤵㐷㔰ㄲ〹㈱㘲㍤㠳㐴攰ㄵ㑣〹㜹扡戸ぢ搶㔹搷づ㠱㍤㘲散愸ㅤ捥〶㐰㌹〰戲敡㜸㝢扤挲㙡慡搳㜸㐳㉢摣搴㔹搵愲㈶㙥散慣㑦敢㡤搷㙥㔰ㅤ㘹㤴㤴㈲搹慣㤱搲㉣ㅢ捣㜱㍢愹ㅡ愱ㄴ㜷愲㙤㐴㤶摢戴戹敦㤴㈲㉦㐲㌱㈹㥡挹ㄹ㙦㔳㠴㠲㐰㙦慣愳攸戳捦㈶㡦㔴挴㠶㌶㐰㠹㝡㉡㉡ㅢ㡡㐳㠲㈷㜰敤愴㉡㑢昱ㄳ昸㝢㔷㥣㥤慦㠷㉤㌵收攵搱戸㘶慡㔶㥢㜷㘱㈵㔴㑣扦扡㑤㔸ㅡ㙢㡢㌴㡣攲捥㕥戵㝦戴扤㈹㐶㡣搹㤰㘱㤱っ㍦㌰搸㄰捣㤵㡡愸搲㍡ㅢ攲㔶㌷㡡㡢㝣㍡㈵㑤㔷㘱㘰㌱慣捥捡㌵㘵㠶㌵㉤昹㔱搵愱㜱㕡㔴㜲搴戰愶㤶〳愸昴㤰㜲㍣捥㈹〶㌷慣㌳㜴㑢攱ㄲ〳挴㙥㥣㕢愸㠴〸敤㌶〶攰挹㘰晢㘰〷㍢ㄲ㠵㑥㘸㥤㔱㠲ㄶ㌲〸户㜵ㄱ攴㥤ㅥ㌱ち㐱㙡愹昴昷㈳攲昳㑦㌲㝤晤㐸㉥挹挴㑣挴㜰㔷㠶昵〰攴愶㈳㤳攴愲搱㈴㘰ㅥ㐹㌶㈵戴〶㤳㌲㥡ㄸ㐳㌴昹晣㄰户㜸ㄸ换ㅡ㈶摢搴㜰捦㉤戴愱㑤㙢敢扢慣ㄳ㙥愵㔶慦㑡愵㡡ㄳ㔹慤㌴昲戶挰㤷扡〲ㄸ㜱㔳挶扥挴㥢㜲〲㐷㈹㉥㤹㐸敡摤敥㌶㡥愰扢ㄲ㜲ㄸ㈳㔲㝤っ㐰㘶戸攵㔴㐰慣攳㥥〲敤挳摤捤ぢっ敡昲ㅣ㐴㕡㐷ㄱ㘵搹ㅣ敥攳㌵愲挸㡡摢㔲捤收扣㌹㡦㌶㝢慡攸戸ㅤㄵ㙤ぢㅣ㘱㥤㤱挰㉢ㄴ㘰㡣昴挸ㅤㅣ㈴㜷㈵㡥敥㕥㜹㐴㍤收慥〰ㄵち〳㠲㌱㕥㥥㠲㜲搸㔵㌰ㄲつ㙥慤㘹㜵ぢ㐶㝦㘹㜹ㅢ㔳〰㠲㘱㘰ㅡ戴㘸ㄹㄹ㌸㌳挸㙦㙥攰摣㠴㔶ㄹㄱ搲㜴㌰㤵㌱捡㔱㌸散㠱㌴㜰ㄳて搲㑢ㅥ㤴㔰戸㐷㕤っ㑢敥㈶㡥㍢㌸〲㜹晥㌵㙤㠵ぢ㘶㠸敢㉦敥摥戶攲愹㙡㤵收㉥晣㜳摢〲慢戸扡ㄱ㤹愳㝢摡㉥㘵愹㌵搱扥扢愵慤㈲扥㉣㜸㘰㜶攲戸ㄹ㔶㔶ㄶ挳昵攸攲㔶慦㈴愱晦㄰晥㠸つ摦㑥㥢㌹敦昲㈲敡ㅡ昷扥㜴搱昵㉥戹㙡㕥㝡挰㕢㝦愰㄰㕣愱散攷㈴㑢戹㝦攳㐷㈵㉤愷晦〰㈳㙥㘵摡ㅣ愰改㈰攱㌸㉡㐵搲㘰っ昹っ㍡㠱敤摥戸㌵㐰㍡搹搳㐶㈷㑡㄰散㄰㡡㝢攱㈵㈳ㄴ昱㝤愰㤵挴ㄲㅤ挹戱攷㕦〳敢㡢敦愱㠴〸挷㜳㉣㐶昴搷㈰㤷㠱㍡㈵挸攳㉢ㅥ扣㄰昲晦㠳愵㠴㥢㌷㘴愷晦〲㌳㡢㘷摢㔱㜴㈳㔱昴摤づㄴ〹㕥〳㔱晣㝢ㄲ㤹㈴改っ捦扥愰㐰㌸搷戴㜳〰㝤搹㉦晣晥てて愰㜳㌱㜱㈸ㅢつ愱戶㕢昱摣㌰ㄱ晡㍡㑣〴〶敦㤵㠹㜰ちㄹ挱㈸㝥㘴㈲挴㍥㤰㜹ㄴ㙣㙥㈲㌰戶㤷㘱〸愶㐲慤㈹户〶㑦㘰搷㌸昴㡦ㅤ挷挵㕢ㄹ㈰㥥て愵ㄵ捣挰㈳㜵㙤㘷昱㠲改㥢捥㕥㔵㝥捣㤷㔰㘶晥ㄲ㙥㜲慢㉥散㜱晤㠶㌵慡搳〶扥㡡挴换扥攳㑦搹摡晤㜵㘰㉡㑡㤱晢㕥ㄴ㐵攱㐵㜸㑡〴捦つ戹昷敤昹挶戱㍦㍣昴搸ㄱ摥㔶㡢㘹㔵扦ㅤ昹㕥㐲昶戴㈷㄰搴㑤㕤ㄴ戹㥡ㅦ收㥣挲㈷㑡昶㙡㑤㑥㥢扥戲㠲〲挳㐹戲ㄱ攱愵〸㌳㈲扥敤㘰㘲攲摥㐳㘴㘲㑥戴戹㍢搵㠷㑤捡㐵㌸㤱㥡戸昲改㈵㘱㐳搱㔵㤱昵㘸㙤敡摦㠲㉡㝡㠱ㄳ㘹戵ㄲ㜹敡㘴ㄲ攲㥢敤扡敥㄰㜵㕤㜴㤰㘱搸㍦㤱㔲㠸㍦㤰㐲搲〷ㄹ㕥〸㔰㔲敡っ㌲晡ㅤ〰ㄹ㤱戵昶㄰㉦晤〱㍢㐲㐰㌶㉥晤昵昸ㄱぢ㜶ㄱ㔸㑣㝣昱扤㥥㘸㘹㡢㈶慡㠹愱㕡㘵搳㉣㈲愳づ㉦㉣㤸㑣㑡㤷㤰㐹㤲㝥〰戹㉤扢愳昸㤲㈱㈷ち扣㐵㡣慤㍢昴戵㤵㥣㝢摤㍡㙥㝥㐰捦ㄴ㤴挲㜰㜷戳ㄸ〷㔲ㄵ愳㡢㥡㤶愲㈲挲攱㈸摢攸㌴㄰㔷㐱㘷戹㝢㜱㉡㐵昰㡦㕦ち戱㝥扣㌹昴搵敤㌵搴㜱㙥㍦ㄶ挸㕦搸㕦㌷㘶㌰㌶摥㑡㡥㠱㠴摤㔲慢㘲㜴㍤晣㉣扡㜰搱㌹㘱㌴戳敡㔹ㅣ挲㥦㠴戳晡戴づ晤捦攸戵攲慣㜳散捤㌰㜶㡢晥㝦㈷ち㌶搵晦㠲戱㌷㠵挸㜷挵ㄹ㍥攸㡣㥦㙣ㅡ戲攱㡥挰戳㡤攰㡤㍡ㄸㅢ㉡换㤰㜷㤴㕢挴挷慢㔱戵㤲攰昰㝢攵摢慦㐶㌴晡搲戶ㅤ攸㉡〰ㄹㅢ搲扦〶ㄱ搴戵㝦慢摣㑡㑥户㠵㜷愳攳㥥㔳㜶挵昷〲捦ち挷ㄶㄱ昴ㅤ攳户㘷ㄶ㙣㥥㈹昱搵㜶愱㜶ぢ㜶㘲昰扤攸㜳㝡ㅥ〲晢戴っ㕦慡㔸㈴㈳ぢ㕢㡢㘴昰㍢愴㤱㔴㜸㠹摡㈱戸捡扡慦㙥搶昰改敡㍣㝣㥤㈱㡢戶㠵戲㡢㍣捥敤㌷㌴戸㜵戸愳昵づ昸㠳㘴㙤〲挱㌱戵㠴㜷扦㤷晢摡扥〷慤㙤攳戵〵㙣搹㥢捦慤愴㍦つ㥣㙥敤㉤慤㈴挳㜷昲㡢攴㤲㔱㈶挴愵晤㈳昸扢㜵〷㉤㐷ㅢ〵㥤挷ㅦ㜴搳ㄱ㌶㕥㠳晢㙣ぢ搱敦昳攸㉡愶〸昰㙢㤸㜱㠶て㠲㕥㍥戲愲昸ㄲ㤶㐵〶㐰㍥㔷愸〰㜴愷敡愷㌶愲敡㤱㤳散㠹㈴㜸挶㈰㌹㤶挴ㄷ搰㤰摢ㄵ㉤ㅢ㉣挱㘵ぢ㜵㤶㐰摥㐸㝡㈰㥦ㄳ㍣㑢愸㠹㝣づㅤㅡㄳ戱㔱摡㝤㈲㥦摤㘸㈲㠲㔶㠰㕡㘸㝡晣㤱㐴㡢ㄸ㌵㔴ㅢづ㠱㑢攰〱㡣㈴捡㘴㤸昲㤱㐲愷㄰挵ㄸ扥㐷ㄴ㈱晤㌲晥晢晣㤱㥦㍦挷昴户㈳㐲㐹㐴㔴戵慥㠲ㄲ㔱慤攲ㄳ改㔵昸㈸敤扥㡡㈷㌶㕡挵〸㠵㈵㘷㘲㠴〰㐳㝤愲㡣㍦㙡㔵㜵㘴戸愱晣ㄵ攷〹昰摢㌲㡢ㄱㄳ㈵慡敦㈵㘴搰㤷㍢慦㕡㕤㐶㈶改慢㜳㈳㌲扥昲㔱㠶ㄲ㙦㐴搲愹㔳㠸扣戲㠵㐸㍤ㄶ㥤搸ㅤ扢㉤㠴〴㤶挴捦㘶扢捡昶㐲㡦愱㝥昱攱〴㌱挷㡦㈷㥦㔰㘹㜱昰〹㠴ㄱ㤹愶㈴㈴㙥愴昸㔰搲昸摢捦㌴㝤愷愸㐰〲昵㐴㡤㐹㜰慡昱〷㤳挶〷昰㜹㤶㙡㤳攳㔵〲愶攷㤳挶㈴㑣搵昸戱愴昱㕦て散㙤㌴㑥攸㌰ㅡ㔹㈷㤱㘴ㄸ扤敡ㄸ㤰晡㔴㝢ㄸ捤㜵㡢㡡㜴挰㡡㡡㈹㐲㔵っ戹愶㔴改㈰㙥㠵昸昸㔸㝡づ㤷㥣㜰ㄷ〴搲㌶晡㍦ㄳ㑥攰昲搳慣ㄹ㥡昸ㄶ㝡つ㔱㘷摦㔰㑦散㕣戰收㝤ㄴ昴㕢㈷〲ㅣ慥慡摢㡡㐴㘰ㄷ攴愳晤摤挴㍢㥦㘱㐳㌶昷㈳㠹㤶㘹扣㑣搲㥢ㄶ㔱ㄱ㤶扣㜸㝦㠲搹摣愳㑤㥡㌱ㅥ〱㜲㈰㈶〱㤹㌱ㅥ〵㡣㈲㌲㝢㔸㌰㐲晥㔷捣晤㝥㔶㝣㠰攰㌱㠰㤲㈰戳㤳づちㅦ〴ㄸ㑥晥挷㡡戱㌵攵㌸搱挴㐳挹换搲㘴㘴㝣㤸ㅤㅥ〷攸㠳ㅦ㔷挴㐴㔸㌲㍥㠲㤲昴㑢㈹㌸搴㑢㍦捡㡡㡦ㄱ㍣〱㔰搲㌹搹㉤敦ㅡ搷搴愳ち晢㌸扡㡡㐷〹昰㙢㝣㈲捥昰㐱攷㍥扣愵扢搱捣㌳㜱昲㠵㍦㘲㥥㉤㥦昲摦㡢㑦昳搷戹攸㍥晣捦㈴扡戲昰昳摡㥢㝢ㅢ㡢㑣㐰攳㕣晤慥㘲戳㕦挴㌸㕣㔷㌳㤴挲ㄱ愹㔴㡡㕡㐱㄰摦㕣戰昰昰〶扥攵戰慡㄰㠲㌴愰㉡摣戸攲〸ち㡣㑦戱㈹㜱㑣㍣ㄹ㥦收ㄳ㔱慢㌶昱㌳㜱㠶て㠲㜸㔵摤ㅦ㠸扢㈷㉦㈴慥㔵㠵摤昶㐲攲㕦㔵慣愴㕦昸㈴〷㔳挸㐲愶㔵㉢ㄱ㘹㡡㠶扥㠰捣㔰摦㌰攷㜶㍦㝥戵换愲㜲扥㝡晥晣㍦㠷昳㘳搷攷摦昹昶挱㈷㥦晦搹ㅦ㍦昹慢昷ㅣ晥换扦㥥㝡敡㔷㝦晡攴㜳晦晡攱昲攱㥦㍣晤昴㡦㑦㝥昹戹㍦敥戶扥愲㍤昳捦戹慦㍣㍣㜹昱攱〷慤戳户ㅦ㝢昸㕤て摣㌷戹㜰搵㜸㕦㕦㝦晦㙤愳㍦扤敥昵㈳㡦㍥昸慣昸搱㙦慥㜵㠵㕡㉥㕥搰㍡つ㉥㕢㑤攳㡢挸㘰ㅡ㥣昱换㍡つ㉥㔷㙤搴㜲扣㔱搳㈸㈸挲戹挱〹愸ち戳戵㘲攰㍦〲㘵戴慣"]
["Decisioneering:7.0.0.0"]

{"sheet":"ERR & Sensitivity Analysis","index":3,"n_rows":32,"n_cols":9,"rows_kept":32,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[[18,1,18,6],[1,5,1,7],[1,1,1,2],[3,1,3,2],[5,1,5,6],[7,1,8,1],[7,2,8,2],[7,3,7,6]]}
[]
[null,"Tanzania: Mafia Island Airport"]
[]
[null,"ERR and sensitivity analysis",null,null,null,null,"Last updated:  8/27/2014"]
[]
[null,"Change the \"User Input\" cells in the table below to see the effect on the compact's Economic Rate of Return (ERR) and net benefits (see chart below).  To reset all values to the default MCC estimates, click the \"Reset Parameters\" button at right.  Be sure to reset all summary parameters to their original values (\"MCC Estimate\" values) before changing specific parameters."]
[]
[null,"Parameter type","Description of key parameters","Parameter values"]
[null,null,null,"User Input","MCC Estimate","Plausible range","Values used in ERR computation",null,"All summary parameters set to initial values?"]
[null,"Summary","Actual costs as a percentage of estimated costs",1,1,"80 - 120%",{"$f":"D10","v":1},null,{"$f":"IF(D10=E10,IF(D11=E11,\"Y\",\"N\"),\"N\")","v":"Y"}]
[null,"Summary","Actual benefits as a percentage of estimated benefits",1,1,"80 - 120%",{"$f":"D11","v":1}]
[]
[null,"Specific","One-time increase in arrivals, with project",0.04,0.04,"0 - 11%",{"$f":"IF($I$10=\"Y\",D13,E13)","v":0.04},null,"All specific parameters set to initial values?"]
[null,"Specific","Estimated % reduction in foreign object damage with project",0.5,0.5,"0 - 90%",{"$f":"IF($I$10=\"Y\",D14,E14)","v":0.5},null,{"$f":"IF(D13=E13, IF(D14=E14,IF(D15=E15,IF(D16=E16,IF(D17=E17, \"Y\",\"N\"),\"N\"),\"N\"),\"N\"),\"N\")","v":"Y"}]
[null,"Specific","Estimated % reduction in maintenance time, with project",0.5,0.5,"0 - 90%",{"$f":"IF($I$10=\"Y\",D15,E15)","v":0.5}]
[null,"Specific","Estimated % reduction in incidents with project",0.5,0.5,"0 - 90%",{"$f":"IF($I$10=\"Y\",D16,E16)","v":0.5},null,"   More Info"]
[null,"Specific","Increased annual airport O&M costs as a percentage of investment costs",5.0000000000000001E-3,5.0000000000000001E-3,"0.5 - 3.0%",{"$f":"IF($I$10=\"Y\",D17,E17)","v":5.0000000000000001E-3},null,"   Activity Description"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"   User's Guide"]
[null,{"$f":"IF($I$10=\"N\",IF($I$11=\"N\",\"Reminder: Please reset all summary parameters to original values before changing specific parameters.  Specific parameters will only be used in ERR computation when all summary parameters are set to initial values.\",0),0)","v":0}]
[]
[null,null,"User Generated Economic rate of return (ERR): ",{"$f":"ERR!C52","v":2.2954617262904264E-2}]
[]
[null,null,"MCC Estimated ERRs: ",null,"Original","Closeout*"]
[null,null,null,"ERR",0.17499999999999999,{"$f":"Sensitivity!F54","v":1.2129718473690336E-2}]
[null,null,null,"Date","2007-08-24","2014-08-27"]
[]
[null,null,"User Generated Present Value (PV) of Benefits:",{"$f":"PV_ben","v":6499602.3856356302},"2013 US$, 10% discount rate"]
[null,null,"Present Value (PV) of Benefits*:",{"$f":"Sensitivity!F168","v":6007670.1119292723},"2013 US$, 10% discount rate"]
[]
[null,null,"Present Value (PV) of MCC Costs:",{"$f":"PV_cost","v":11869805.759346047},"2013 US$, 10% discount rate"]
[]
[null,null,"* The Closeout estimates are expected values based on a 10,000-trial Monte Carlo simulation, while the User Generated numbers above show the base case scenario."]

{"sheet":"Assumptions","index":4,"n_rows":54,"n_cols":5,"rows_kept":54,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[[1,1,1,2],[36,1,36,4],[37,1,37,4],[38,1,38,4],[49,1,49,4],[39,1,39,4],[41,1,41,4],[44,1,44,4],[46,1,46,4],[47,1,47,4],[2,2,2,4]]}
[null,"Tanzania: Mafia Island Airport",null,null,"Last updated:  8/27/2014"]
[null,"Assumptions"]
[null,null,{"$f":"IF('ERR & Sensitivity Analysis'!$I$10=\"N\",\"Note: Current calculations are based on user input and are not the original MCC estimates.\",IF('ERR & Sensitivity Analysis'!$I$14=\"N\",\"Note: Current calculations are based on user input and are not the original MCC estimates.\",0))","v":0}]
[null,"*  all prices are in 2013 US$ unless otherwise noted"]
[]
[null,"Value","Assumption","Source","Note"]
[null,{"$f":"'ERR & Sensitivity Analysis'!G17","v":5.0000000000000001E-3},"Increased annual airport O&M costs as a percentage of investment costs","Assumption",{"$f":"A36","v":1}]
[]
[null,23375.66,"Average direct costs for foreign object damage per 10k movements","McCreary (2010)",{"$f":"A37","v":2}]
[null,{"$f":"'ERR & Sensitivity Analysis'!G14","v":0.5},"Estimated % reduction in FOD with project","Assumption",{"$f":"A38","v":3}]
[null,1.6,"FOD strikes on the runway per 10K movements","McCreary (2010)",{"$f":"A39","v":4}]
[]
[null,1,"Average time to repair FOD (days)","Assumption",{"$f":"A40","v":5}]
[null,240,"Price of a rountrip ticket Dar es Salaam-Mafia Island","Coastal Aviation (2014)",{"$f":"A41","v":6}]
[]
[null,211.03,"Aircraft maintenance costs/hour","Aircraft Cost Calculator (2014)",{"$f":"A42","v":7}]
[null,203,"Average maintenance hours/year","Aircraft Cost Calculator (2014)",{"$f":"A43","v":8}]
[null,{"$f":"'ERR & Sensitivity Analysis'!G15","v":0.5},"Estimated % reduction in maintenance time, with project","Assumption",{"$f":"A44","v":9}]
[]
[null,0.53,"Aviation incidents per 10,000 aircraft movements","Tanzania Civil Aviation Authority (2006)",{"$f":"A45","v":10}]
[null,5.2,"Fatal accidents per 1,000,000 aircraft movements","UK Civil Aviation Authority (2013)",{"$f":"A46","v":11}]
[null,{"$f":"'ERR & Sensitivity Analysis'!G16","v":0.5},"Estimated % reduction in incidents with project","Assumption",{"$f":"A44","v":9}]
[null,2100000,"Replacement value of aircraft","Controller.com (2014)",{"$f":"A47","v":12}]
[null,{"$f":"100000*1.52357","v":152357},"Minimum liability insurance coverage per passenger","ICAO, African Civil Aviaton Policy (2013)",{"$f":"A48","v":13}]
[]
[null,1.7999999999999999E-2,"Annual growth rate of arrivals","Tanzania Airports Authority data",{"$f":"A49","v":14}]
[null,{"$f":"'ERR & Sensitivity Analysis'!G13","v":0.04},"One-time increase in arrivals, with project","Assumption based on demand calculations",{"$f":"A50","v":15}]
[null,0.4,"Percent of visitors who are tourists","Busalama, Baseline Evaluation Report (2012)",{"$f":"A51","v":16}]
[null,0.36,"Percent of visitors who are business travelers","Busalama, Baseline Evaluation Report (2012)",{"$f":"A51","v":16}]
[]
[null,104390,"Available annual bed-nights at Mafia Island hotels","Busalama, Baseline Evaluation Report (2012)",{"$f":"A52","v":17}]
[null,6.34,"Average visitor stay on Mafia Island (days)","Busalama, Baseline Evaluation Report (2012)",{"$f":"A53","v":18}]
[null,{"$f":"604/6.34","v":95.268138801261827},"Average spending per visitor per day (US$/day)","Busalama, Baseline Evaluation Report (2012)",{"$f":"A54","v":19}]
[]
[null,"Notes"]
[1,"The financial IRR produced during design estimated operation and maintenance costs, which averaged about 0.5% of the estimated total construction costs."]
[2,"McCreary (2010), Average cost of strikes on a runway per 10K movements (costs have been converted into 2014 value using a CPI Inflation calculator from the Bureau of Labor Statistics)."]
[3,"The model assumes that a smoother runway will reduce FOD on the runway by eliminating rocks and debris, and thus reduce FOD strikes.  However, FOD data collection is sparse, and airlines do not typically share their data with the public.  Thus, no studies have been found that  estimate the percentage reduction in FOD strikes from an improved runway.  This model assumes 30% as a placeholder and will conduct sensitivity analysis around it."]
[4,"McCreary (2010), Average cost of FOD damage on a runway per 10K movements. FOD is foreign object debris. This may include nails, plastic bags, or anything that can obstruct airplane movements along the runway."]
[5,"The model assumes that each FOD strike will result in one day of repair, during which time the aircraft will be idle and unable to travel to/from Mafia.  Because some strikes will result in minor damage requiring little repair, other strikes may result in major requiring several days of repair.  Sensitivity analysis conducted on this parameter demonstrated that it has little impact on the ERR."]
[6,"Coastal Aviation website (http://www.coastal.co.tz/). Accessed 8/7/2014."]
[7,"Aircraft Cost Calculator (2014), Derived from estimates of hourly operating costs for a Cessna Grand Caravan CE-208B, including airframe maintenance and engine maintenance.  Estimates of maintenance costs/hour vary widely for the Cessna Grand Caravan, from $100-400/hour."]
[8,"Aircraft Cost Calculator (2014), Derived by dividing the estimate of maintenance costs/hour by the estimates of maintenance costs/year."]
[9,"Assumed using the same logic as for the reduction in FOD strikes.  Sensitivity analysis will be conducted."]
[10,"An incident is defined here as any type of event that affects the flight operations such as a blown tire, overrunning the runway, hitting a bird, or an accident. One movement is either a take-off or a landing, meaning there are two movements per flight.  This estimate comes from averaging the incidents "]
[11,"UK CAA (2013), Fatal accident rate for Africa, 2002-2011."]
[12,"Based on base price of new 2014 Cessna Grand Caravan ($2,149,000).  Source: Controller.com. http://www.controller.com/listingsdetail/aircraft-for-sale/CESSNA-GRAND-CARAVAN-EX/2013-CESSNA-GRAND-CARAVAN-EX/1278093.htm"]
[13,"ICAO (2013), The International Civil Aviation Organization under the Montreal Convention of 1999 requires a minimum liability insurance equivalent to 100,000 Special Drawing Rights (SDR) per passenger.  100,000 SDR was converted to 2013 US$ using the exchange rate effective at compact closeout on September 16, 2013, using an exchange rate provided by the IMF at http://www.imf.org/external/np/fin/data/rms_sdrv.aspx."]
[14,"Long-run growth trend calculated from TAA passenger data for Mafia Aiport, 1999-2013."]
[15,"Calculated using a model of demand for air travel to Mafia Island (see 'Demand' worksheet).  Assuming that airlines pass on the aircraft operating cost savings to reduce ticket prices, consumers will respond with a one-time increase in travel to Mafia Island of approximately 3.4%.  After the market adjusts to the new equilibrium price, the counterfactual growth rate in annual flights and passengers continues in both scenarios."]
[16,"Busalama (2012), Table 19, p. 31."]
[17,"Busalama (2012), p. 32."]
[18,"Busalama (2012), p. 35."]
[19,"Busalama (2012). Derived by dividing the average visitor spending/trip ($604) by the average stay/vistor (6.34 days)."]

{"sheet":"ERR","index":5,"n_rows":68,"n_cols":26,"rows_kept":68,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[[1,2,1,5],[0,2,0,6]]}
[null,"Tanzania: Mafia Island Airport",{"$f":"IF('ERR & Sensitivity Analysis'!$I$10=\"N\",\"Note: Current calculations are based on user input and are not the original MCC estimates.\",IF('ERR & Sensitivity Analysis'!$I$14=\"N\",\"Note: Current calculations are based on user input and are not the original MCC estimates.\",0))","v":0},null,null,null,null,null,"Last updated:  8/27/2014"]
[null,"ERR Summary","<--------------------- Compact Period ---------------------->"]
[null,"Project year",0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20]
["Notes","Year",2010,2011,2012,2013,2014,2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022,2023,2024,2025,2026,2027,2028,2029,2030]
[]
[{"$f":"A61","v":1},"Costs"]
[null,"Construction costs",{"$f":"Costs!I8","v":0},{"$f":"Costs!J8","v":0},{"$f":"Costs!K8","v":3410204.78},{"$f":"Costs!L8","v":7642163.1699999999},{"$f":"Costs!M8","v":20000}]
[null,"Supervision",{"$f":"Costs!I9","v":0},{"$f":"Costs!J9","v":285000},{"$f":"Costs!K9","v":645000},{"$f":"Costs!L9","v":740175},{"$f":"Costs!M9","v":315468}]
[null,"Environmental Studies",{"$f":"Costs!I10","v":0},{"$f":"Costs!J10","v":0},{"$f":"Costs!K10","v":0},{"$f":"Costs!L10","v":0},{"$f":"Costs!M10","v":0}]
[null,"Resettlement",{"$f":"Costs!I11","v":0},{"$f":"Costs!J11","v":0},{"$f":"Costs!K11","v":5983.1859067368096},{"$f":"Costs!L11","v":13408.134093263199},{"$f":"Costs!M11","v":0}]
[null,"Feasibility Studies",{"$f":"Costs!I12","v":0},{"$f":"Costs!J12","v":0},{"$f":"Costs!K12","v":420000},{"$f":"Costs!L12","v":0},{"$f":"Costs!M12","v":0}]
[null,"Technical assistance",{"$f":"Costs!I13","v":0},{"$f":"Costs!J13","v":107567.759845525},{"$f":"Costs!K13","v":243442.82491355701},{"$f":"Costs!L13","v":279364.795240918},{"$f":"Costs!M13","v":0}]
[null,"Administrative Costs",{"$f":"Costs!I14","v":0},{"$f":"Costs!J14","v":88990.413029415504},{"$f":"Costs!K14","v":201399.35580341399},{"$f":"Costs!L14","v":231117.47004928999},{"$f":"Costs!M14","v":0}]
[null,"M&E Costs",{"$f":"Costs!I15","v":0},{"$f":"Costs!J15","v":13305.1615266058},{"$f":"Costs!K15","v":30111.6813496869},{"$f":"Costs!L15","v":34554.905027913999},{"$f":"Costs!M15","v":0}]
[{"$f":"A62","v":2},"Increased operation & maintenance costs",0,0,0,0,0,{"$f":"Inv_cost*OM_pct","v":70638.888250000004},70638.888250000004,70638.888250000004,70638.888250000004,70638.888250000004,70638.888250000004,70638.888250000004,70638.888250000004,70638.888250000004,70638.888250000004,70638.888250000004,70638.888250000004,70638.888250000004,70638.888250000004,70638.888250000004,70638.888250000004]
[]
[null,"Total costs",{"$f":"SUM(C7:C15)","v":0},{"$f":"SUM(D7:D15)","v":494863.33440154634},4956141.8279733947,8940783.474411387,335468,70638.888250000004,70638.888250000004,70638.888250000004,70638.888250000004,70638.888250000004,70638.888250000004,70638.888250000004,70638.888250000004,70638.888250000004,70638.888250000004,70638.888250000004,70638.888250000004,70638.888250000004,70638.888250000004,70638.888250000004,70638.888250000004]
[]
[]
[{"$f":"A63","v":3},"Airport Traffic"]
[null,"Without project"]
[null,"Inbound flights",{"$f":"Tourism!N6","v":1444},{"$f":"Tourism!O6","v":1394},{"$f":"Tourism!P6","v":1462},{"$f":"Tourism!Q6","v":1488.316},{"$f":"Tourism!R6","v":1515.1056880000001},{"$f":"Tourism!S6","v":1542.3775903840001},{"$f":"Tourism!T6","v":1570.140387010912},{"$f":"Tourism!U6","v":1598.4029139771085},{"$f":"Tourism!V6","v":1627.1741664286965},{"$f":"Tourism!W6","v":1656.463301424413},{"$f":"Tourism!X6","v":1686.2796408500524},{"$f":"Tourism!Y6","v":1716.6326743853533},{"$f":"Tourism!Z6","v":1747.5320625242896},{"$f":"Tourism!AA6","v":1778.9876396497268},{"$f":"Tourism!AB6","v":1811.0094171634219},{"$f":"Tourism!AC6","v":1843.6075866723634},{"$f":"Tourism!AD6","v":1876.792523232466},{"$f":"Tourism!AE6","v":1910.5747886506504},{"$f":"Tourism!AF6","v":1944.9651348463622},{"$f":"Tourism!AG6","v":1979.9745072735966},{"$f":"Tourism!AH6","v":2015.6140484045213}]
[null,"Passenger arrivals",{"$f":"Tourism!N10","v":9671},{"$f":"Tourism!O10","v":9676},{"$f":"Tourism!P10","v":9733},{"$f":"Tourism!Q10","v":9908.1939999999995},{"$f":"Tourism!R10","v":10086.541492},{"$f":"Tourism!S10","v":10268.099238856001},{"$f":"Tourism!T10","v":10452.925025155409},{"$f":"Tourism!U10","v":10641.077675608207},{"$f":"Tourism!V10","v":10832.617073769155},{"$f":"Tourism!W10","v":11027.604181097},{"$f":"Tourism!X10","v":11226.101056356747},{"$f":"Tourism!Y10","v":11428.170875371168},{"$f":"Tourism!Z10","v":11633.87795112785},{"$f":"Tourism!AA10","v":11843.287754248151},{"$f":"Tourism!AB10","v":12056.466933824619},{"$f":"Tourism!AC10","v":12273.483338633461},{"$f":"Tourism!AD10","v":12494.406038728865},{"$f":"Tourism!AE10","v":12719.305347425985},{"$f":"Tourism!AF10","v":12948.252843679653},{"$f":"Tourism!AG10","v":13181.321394865887},{"$f":"Tourism!AH10","v":13418.585179973474}]
[]
[null,"With project"]
[null,"Inbound flights",{"$f":"Tourism!N22","v":1444},{"$f":"Tourism!O22","v":1394},{"$f":"Tourism!P22","v":1462},{"$f":"Tourism!Q22","v":1605},{"$f":"Tourism!R22","v":1669.2},{"$f":"Tourism!S22","v":1699.2456},{"$f":"Tourism!T22","v":1729.8320208},{"$f":"Tourism!U22","v":1760.9689971744001},{"$f":"Tourism!V22","v":1792.6664391235392},{"$f":"Tourism!W22","v":1824.9344350277629},{"$f":"Tourism!X22","v":1857.7832548582626},{"$f":"Tourism!Y22","v":1891.2233534457114},{"$f":"Tourism!Z22","v":1925.2653738077342},{"$f":"Tourism!AA22","v":1959.9201505362735},{"$f":"Tourism!AB22","v":1995.1987132459265},{"$f":"Tourism!AC22","v":2031.1122900843532},{"$f":"Tourism!AD22","v":2067.6723113058715},{"$f":"Tourism!AE22","v":2104.8904129093771},{"$f":"Tourism!AF22","v":2142.7784403417459},{"$f":"Tourism!AG22","v":2181.3484522678973},{"$f":"Tourism!AH22","v":2220.6127244087197}]
[null,"Passenger arrivals",{"$f":"Tourism!N26","v":9671},{"$f":"Tourism!O26","v":9676},{"$f":"Tourism!P26","v":9733},{"$f":"Tourism!Q26","v":10806},{"$f":"Tourism!R26","v":11238.24},{"$f":"Tourism!S26","v":11440.528319999999},{"$f":"Tourism!T26","v":11646.45782976},{"$f":"Tourism!U26","v":11856.094070695681},{"$f":"Tourism!V26","v":12069.503763968203},{"$f":"Tourism!W26","v":12286.754831719631},{"$f":"Tourism!X26","v":12507.916418690584},{"$f":"Tourism!Y26","v":12733.058914227015},{"$f":"Tourism!Z26","v":12962.253974683101},{"$f":"Tourism!AA26","v":13195.574546227397},{"$f":"Tourism!AB26","v":13433.09488805949},{"$f":"Tourism!AC26","v":13674.890596044561},{"$f":"Tourism!AD26","v":13921.038626773363},{"$f":"Tourism!AE26","v":14171.617322055283},{"$f":"Tourism!AF26","v":14426.706433852278},{"$f":"Tourism!AG26","v":14686.387149661619},{"$f":"Tourism!AH26","v":14950.742118355529}]
[]
[null,"Change in airport traffic"]
[null,"Inbound flights",{"$f":"C26-C22","v":0},{"$f":"D26-D22","v":0},0,116.68399999999997,154.09431199999995,156.86800961599988,159.69163378908797,162.56608319729162,165.49227269484277,168.47113360334993,171.50361400821021,174.59067906035807,177.73331128344466,180.93251088654665,184.1892960825046,187.50470341198979,190.87978807340551,194.31562425872676,197.8133054953837,201.3739449943007,204.99867600419839]
[null,"Passenger arrivals",{"$f":"C27-C23","v":0},{"$f":"D27-D23","v":0},0,897.80600000000049,1151.6985079999995,1172.4290811439987,1193.5328046045906,1215.0163950874739,1236.8866901990477,1259.1506506226306,1281.8153623338367,1304.8880388558464,1328.3760235552509,1352.2867919792461,1376.6279542348711,1401.4072574110996,1426.6325880444983,1452.3119746292978,1478.4535901726249,1505.0657547957326,1532.1569383820552]
[]
[null,"Benefits"]
[{"$f":"A64","v":4},"1.  Aircraft operating cost savings"]
[]
[null,"Routine aircraft maintenance cost savings",{"$f":"Aircraft!E34","v":0},{"$f":"Aircraft!F34","v":0},{"$f":"Aircraft!G34","v":0},{"$f":"Aircraft!H34","v":80492.420129972597},{"$f":"Aircraft!I34","v":79869.16277738061},{"$f":"Aircraft!J34","v":81306.807707373446},{"$f":"Aircraft!K34","v":82770.330246106154},{"$f":"Aircraft!L34","v":84260.196190536051},{"$f":"Aircraft!M34","v":85776.879721965757},{"$f":"Aircraft!N34","v":87320.863556961122},{"$f":"Aircraft!O34","v":88892.639100986387},{"$f":"Aircraft!P34","v":90492.70660480416},{"$f":"Aircraft!Q34","v":92121.575323690631},{"$f":"Aircraft!R34","v":93779.763679517084},{"$f":"Aircraft!S34","v":95467.799425748395},{"$f":"Aircraft!T34","v":97186.219815411852},{"$f":"Aircraft!U34","v":98935.571772089257},{"$f":"Aircraft!V34","v":100716.41206398688},{"$f":"Aircraft!W34","v":102529.30748113866},{"$f":"Aircraft!X34","v":104374.83501579914},{"$f":"Aircraft!Y34","v":106253.58204608348}]
[null,"Foreign object damage (FOD) cost savings",{"$f":"Aircraft!E42","v":0},{"$f":"Aircraft!F42","v":0},{"$f":"Aircraft!G42","v":0},{"$f":"Aircraft!H42","v":3582.4462502600381},{"$f":"Aircraft!I42","v":3181.4539181508162},{"$f":"Aircraft!J42","v":3238.7200886775308},{"$f":"Aircraft!K42","v":3297.0170502737265},{"$f":"Aircraft!L42","v":3356.363357178654},{"$f":"Aircraft!M42","v":3416.7778976078698},{"$f":"Aircraft!N42","v":3478.2798997648115},{"$f":"Aircraft!O42","v":3540.8889379605771},{"$f":"Aircraft!P42","v":3604.6249388438673},{"$f":"Aircraft!Q42","v":3669.5081877430566},{"$f":"Aircraft!R42","v":3735.5593351224315},{"$f":"Aircraft!S42","v":3802.7994031546359},{"$f":"Aircraft!T42","v":3871.2497924114186},{"$f":"Aircraft!U42","v":3940.9322886748241},{"$f":"Aircraft!V42","v":4011.8690698709706},{"$f":"Aircraft!W42","v":4084.0827131286496},{"$f":"Aircraft!X42","v":4157.5962019649642},{"$f":"Aircraft!Y42","v":4232.4329336003339}]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,{"$f":"NPV(0.1,D47:W47)","v":6877075.2908127066}]
[null,"Total aircraft operating cost savings (per year)",{"$f":"SUM(C36:C37)","v":0},0,0,84074.866380232634,83050.616695531426,84545.52779605097,86067.347296379885,87616.5595477147,89193.657619573627,90799.143456725928,92433.52803894697,94097.331543648033,95791.083511433681,97515.323014639522,99270.598828903036,101057.46960782327,102876.50406076408,104728.28113385785,106613.39019426731,108532.4312177641,110486.01497968381,null,{"$f":"NPV(0.1,D39:W39)","v":620221.57779798773},{"$f":"Y39/$Z$38","v":9.0186823841606117E-2}]
[]
[{"$f":"A65","v":5},"2.  Flight safety improvements"]
[{"$f":"A66","v":6},"Reduced insurance claims due to fewer incidents",{"$f":"Safety!E33","v":0},{"$f":"Safety!F33","v":0},{"$f":"Safety!G33","v":0},{"$f":"Safety!H33","v":159801.17915948312},{"$f":"Safety!I33","v":158559.25268586911},{"$f":"Safety!J33","v":161413.31923421478},{"$f":"Safety!K33","v":164318.75898043058},{"$f":"Safety!L33","v":167276.49664207836},{"$f":"Safety!M33","v":170287.47358163583},{"$f":"Safety!N33","v":173352.64810610531},{"$f":"Safety!O33","v":176472.9957720151},{"$f":"Safety!P33","v":179649.50969591131},{"$f":"Safety!Q33","v":182883.20087043778},{"$f":"Safety!R33","v":186175.09848610568},{"$f":"Safety!S33","v":189526.25025885549},{"$f":"Safety!T33","v":192937.7227635149},{"$f":"Safety!U33","v":196410.60177325824},{"$f":"Safety!V33","v":199945.99260517687},{"$f":"Safety!W33","v":203545.02047207003},{"$f":"Safety!X33","v":207208.83084056733},{"$f":"Safety!Y33","v":210938.5897956976},null,{"$f":"NPV(0.1,D42:W42)","v":1183583.5751804104},{"$f":"Y42/$Z$38","v":0.17210565903816635}]
[]
[{"$f":"A67","v":7},"3.  Increased tourism from lower airfare costs"]
[null,"Increased visitor spending",{"$f":"Tourism!N36","v":0},{"$f":"Tourism!O36","v":0},{"$f":"Tourism!P36","v":0},{"$f":"Tourism!Q36","v":542274.82399999909},{"$f":"Tourism!R36","v":695625.89883199893},{"$f":"Tourism!S36","v":708147.16501097567},{"$f":"Tourism!T36","v":720893.8139811717},{"$f":"Tourism!U36","v":733869.90263283346},{"$f":"Tourism!V36","v":747079.56088022422},{"$f":"Tourism!W36","v":760526.99297606852},{"$f":"Tourism!X36","v":774216.47884963639},{"$f":"Tourism!Y36","v":788152.37546893116},{"$f":"Tourism!Z36","v":802339.11822737195},{"$f":"Tourism!AA36","v":816781.22235546354},{"$f":"Tourism!AB36","v":831483.28435786255},{"$f":"Tourism!AC36","v":846449.98347630445},{"$f":"Tourism!AD36","v":861686.08317887783},{"$f":"Tourism!AE36","v":877196.43267609458},{"$f":"Tourism!AF36","v":892985.96846426558},{"$f":"Tourism!AG36","v":909059.71589662228},{"$f":"Tourism!AH36","v":925422.79078276176},null,{"$f":"NPV(0.1,D45:W45)","v":5073270.1378343059},{"$f":"Y45/$Z$38","v":0.7377075171202272}]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,{"$f":"SUM(Z39,Z42,Z45)","v":0.99999999999999967}]
[null,"Total benefits",{"$f":"SUM(C39,C42,C45)*'ERR & Sensitivity Analysis'!$G$11","v":0},{"$f":"SUM(D39,D42,D45)*'ERR & Sensitivity Analysis'!$G$11","v":0},{"$f":"SUM(E39,E42,E45)*'ERR & Sensitivity Analysis'!$G$11","v":0},{"$f":"SUM(F39,F42,F45)*'ERR & Sensitivity Analysis'!$G$11","v":786150.86953971488},{"$f":"SUM(G39,G42,G45)*'ERR & Sensitivity Analysis'!$G$11","v":937235.76821339945},{"$f":"SUM(H39,H42,H45)*'ERR & Sensitivity Analysis'!$G$11","v":954106.0120412414},{"$f":"SUM(I39,I42,I45)*'ERR & Sensitivity Analysis'!$G$11","v":971279.9202579821},{"$f":"SUM(J39,J42,J45)*'ERR & Sensitivity Analysis'!$G$11","v":988762.9588226265},{"$f":"SUM(K39,K42,K45)*'ERR & Sensitivity Analysis'!$G$11","v":1006560.6920814337},{"$f":"SUM(L39,L42,L45)*'ERR & Sensitivity Analysis'!$G$11","v":1024678.7845388998},{"$f":"SUM(M39,M42,M45)*'ERR & Sensitivity Analysis'!$G$11","v":1043123.0026605985},{"$f":"SUM(N39,N42,N45)*'ERR & Sensitivity Analysis'!$G$11","v":1061899.2167084906},{"$f":"SUM(O39,O42,O45)*'ERR & Sensitivity Analysis'!$G$11","v":1081013.4026092435},{"$f":"SUM(P39,P42,P45)*'ERR & Sensitivity Analysis'!$G$11","v":1100471.6438562088},{"$f":"SUM(Q39,Q42,Q45)*'ERR & Sensitivity Analysis'!$G$11","v":1120280.133445621},{"$f":"SUM(R39,R42,R45)*'ERR & Sensitivity Analysis'!$G$11","v":1140445.1758476426},{"$f":"SUM(S39,S42,S45)*'ERR & Sensitivity Analysis'!$G$11","v":1160973.1890129002},{"$f":"SUM(T39,T42,T45)*'ERR & Sensitivity Analysis'!$G$11","v":1181870.7064151294},{"$f":"SUM(U39,U42,U45)*'ERR & Sensitivity Analysis'!$G$11","v":1203144.3791306028},{"$f":"SUM(V39,V42,V45)*'ERR & Sensitivity Analysis'!$G$11","v":1224800.9779549537},{"$f":"SUM(W39,W42,W45)*'ERR & Sensitivity Analysis'!$G$11","v":1246847.395558143}]
[{"$f":"A68","v":8},"Net local benefits",{"$f":"C47-C15","v":0},{"$f":"D47-D15","v":0},0,786150.86953971488,{"$f":"G47-G15","v":937235.76821339945},{"$f":"H47-H15","v":883467.12379124144},{"$f":"I47-I15","v":900641.03200798214},{"$f":"J47-J15","v":918124.07057262654},{"$f":"K47-K15","v":935921.80383143376},{"$f":"L47-L15","v":954039.89628889982},{"$f":"M47-M15","v":972484.11441059853},{"$f":"N47-N15","v":991260.32845849067},{"$f":"O47-O15","v":1010374.5143592436},{"$f":"P47-P15","v":1029832.7556062088},{"$f":"Q47-Q15","v":1049641.2451956209},{"$f":"R47-R15","v":1069806.2875976425},{"$f":"S47-S15","v":1090334.3007629002},{"$f":"T47-T15","v":1111231.8181651293},{"$f":"U47-U15","v":1132505.4908806027},{"$f":"V47-V15","v":1154162.0897049536},{"$f":"W47-W15","v":1176208.507308143}]
[]
[null,"Net benefits",{"$f":"C47-C17","v":0},-494863.33440154634,-4956141.8279733947,-8154632.6048716716,601767.76821339945,883467.12379124144,900641.03200798214,918124.07057262654,935921.80383143376,954039.89628889982,972484.11441059853,991260.32845849067,1010374.5143592436,1029832.7556062088,1049641.2451956209,1069806.2875976425,1090334.3007629002,1111231.8181651293,1132505.4908806027,1154162.0897049536,1176208.507308143]
[]
[null,"ERR",{"$f":"IRR(D50:W50)","v":2.2954617262904264E-2}]
[]
[null,"NPV",{"$f":"NPV(0.1,D50:W50)","v":-4992730.468533339}]
[]
[null,"PV of benefits",{"$f":"NPV(0.1,D48:W48)","v":6499602.3856356302}]
[]
[null,"PV of costs",{"$f":"NPV(0.1,D17:W17)","v":11869805.759346047}]
[]
[null,"Notes"]
[1,"From the 'Costs' worksheet."]
[2,"\"Increased operation & maintenance costs\" refers to the difference between the expected maintenance costs with and without project.  We do not have cost figures for O&M expenses, but it is assumed that the upgraded airport will require slightly higher maintenance costs."]
[3,"From the 'Tourism' worksheet.  Shown in this worksheet for reference purposes."]
[4,"From the 'Aircraft' worksheet."]
[5,"From the 'Safety' worksheet."]
[6,"An incident is any type of event that affects the flight operations such as a blown tire, overrunning the runway, hitting a bird, or an accident."]
[7,"From the 'Tourism' worksheet."]
[8,"Total benefits minus local costs (operation and maintenance).  Used to calculate the PV of benefits for the poverty scorecard."]

{"sheet":"Costs","index":6,"n_rows":22,"n_cols":14,"rows_kept":22,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[[2,2,2,10],[5,13,6,13],[5,1,6,1],[5,2,6,2],[5,3,6,3],[5,4,6,4]]}
[null,"Tanzania: Mafia Island Airport",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Last updated:  8/27/2014"]
[null,"Activity Costs"]
[null,null,{"$f":"IF('ERR & Sensitivity Analysis'!$I$10=\"N\",\"Note: Current calculations are based on user input and are not the original MCC estimates.\",IF('ERR & Sensitivity Analysis'!$I$14=\"N\",\"Note: Current calculations are based on user input and are not the original MCC estimates.\",0))","v":0}]
[{"$f":"A21","v":1},"Activity costs by funder",null,null,null,null,"Activity costs per year"]
[]
[null,"Component","MCA-T","GoT","Total",null,"Compact year","Y1","Y2","Y3","Y4","Y5","Y6","Total"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,"Year",2009,2010,2011,2012,2013,2014]
[null,"Construction costs",11052367.949999999,20000,11072367.949999999,null,"Construction costs",null,null,null,{"$f":"'ERR & Sensitivity Analysis'!G10*3410204.78","v":3410204.78},{"$f":"'ERR & Sensitivity Analysis'!G10*7642163.17","v":7642163.1699999999},{"$f":"'ERR & Sensitivity Analysis'!G10*20000","v":20000},{"$f":"SUM(H8:M8)","v":11072367.949999999}]
[null,"Supervision",1670175,315468,1985643,null,"Supervision",null,null,{"$f":"'ERR & Sensitivity Analysis'!G10*285000","v":285000},{"$f":"'ERR & Sensitivity Analysis'!G10*645000","v":645000},{"$f":"'ERR & Sensitivity Analysis'!G10*740175","v":740175},{"$f":"'ERR & Sensitivity Analysis'!G10*315468","v":315468},{"$f":"SUM(H9:M9)","v":1985643}]
[null,"Environmental Studies",0,0,0,null,"Environmental Studies",null,null,null,0,0,0,0]
[null,"Resettlement",19391.32,0,19391.32,null,"Resettlement",null,null,null,{"$f":"'ERR & Sensitivity Analysis'!G10*5983.18590673681","v":5983.1859067368096},{"$f":"'ERR & Sensitivity Analysis'!G10*13408.1340932632","v":13408.134093263199},0,19391.320000000007]
[null,"Feasibility Studies",420000,0,420000,null,"Feasibility Studies",null,null,null,{"$f":"'ERR & Sensitivity Analysis'!G10*420000","v":420000},0,0,420000]
[null,"Technical assistance",630375.38,0,630375.38,null,"Technical assistance",null,null,{"$f":"'ERR & Sensitivity Analysis'!G10*107567.759845525","v":107567.759845525},{"$f":"'ERR & Sensitivity Analysis'!G10*243442.824913557","v":243442.82491355701},{"$f":"'ERR & Sensitivity Analysis'!G10*279364.795240918","v":279364.795240918},0,630375.38]
[{"$f":"A22","v":2},"Administrative Costs",521507.23888211942,0,521507.23888211942,null,"Administrative Costs",null,null,{"$f":"'ERR & Sensitivity Analysis'!G10*88990.4130294155","v":88990.413029415504},{"$f":"'ERR & Sensitivity Analysis'!G10*201399.355803414","v":201399.35580341399},{"$f":"'ERR & Sensitivity Analysis'!G10*231117.47004929","v":231117.47004928999},0,521507.23888211948]
[null,"M&E Costs",77971.747904206713,0,77971.747904206713,null,"M&E Costs",null,null,{"$f":"'ERR & Sensitivity Analysis'!G10*13305.1615266058","v":13305.1615266058},{"$f":"'ERR & Sensitivity Analysis'!G10*30111.6813496869","v":30111.6813496869},{"$f":"'ERR & Sensitivity Analysis'!G10*34554.905027914","v":34554.905027913999},0,77971.747904206699]
[null,"Total w/o Admin, M&E",{"$f":"SUM(C8:C13)","v":13792309.65},{"$f":"SUM(D8:D13)","v":335468},{"$f":"SUM(E8:E13)","v":14127777.65},null,"Total w/o Admin, M&E",{"$f":"SUM(H8:H13)","v":0},0,392567.75984552503,4724630.7908202931,8675111.0993341822,335468,14127777.65]
[null,"Total",null,null,{"$f":"SUM(E8:E15)","v":14727256.636786327},null,"Total",{"$f":"SUM(H8:H15)","v":0},0,494863.33440154634,4956141.8279733947,8940783.474411387,335468,14727256.636786327]
[]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,"PV of investment costs",{"$f":"NPV(0.1,J17:M17)","v":11492332.85416897},null,null,null,null,null,6620000]
[null,"Notes",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,{"$f":"(N16-N19)/N19","v":1.1341053851963747}]
[1,"Activity costs from Q20 MCA-T Detailed Financial Plan and Q22 GoT Detailed Financial Plan."]
[2,"Administrative and M&E costs are based on a share of compact administrative and M&E costs, proportional to activity cost."]

{"sheet":"Aircraft","index":7,"n_rows":51,"n_cols":27,"rows_kept":51,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[[1,4,1,7],[0,2,0,6]]}
[null,"Tanzania: Mafia Island Airport",{"$f":"IF('ERR & Sensitivity Analysis'!$I$10=\"N\",\"Note: Current calculations are based on user input and are not the original MCC estimates.\",IF('ERR & Sensitivity Analysis'!$I$14=\"N\",\"Note: Current calculations are based on user input and are not the original MCC estimates.\",0))","v":0},null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Last updated:  8/27/2014"]
[null,"Aircraft Operating Costs",null,null,"<--------------------- Compact Period ---------------------->"]
[null,"Project year",-2,-1,0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20]
["Notes","Year",2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2013,2014,2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022,2023,2024,2025,2026,2027,2028,2029,2030]
[null,"Without Project"]
[null,"Inbound flights",{"$f":"Tourism!L6","v":1527},{"$f":"Tourism!M6","v":1526},{"$f":"Tourism!N6","v":1444},{"$f":"Tourism!O6","v":1394},{"$f":"Tourism!P6","v":1462},{"$f":"Tourism!Q6","v":1488.316},{"$f":"Tourism!R6","v":1515.1056880000001},{"$f":"Tourism!S6","v":1542.3775903840001},{"$f":"Tourism!T6","v":1570.140387010912},{"$f":"Tourism!U6","v":1598.4029139771085},{"$f":"Tourism!V6","v":1627.1741664286965},{"$f":"Tourism!W6","v":1656.463301424413},{"$f":"Tourism!X6","v":1686.2796408500524},{"$f":"Tourism!Y6","v":1716.6326743853533},{"$f":"Tourism!Z6","v":1747.5320625242896},{"$f":"Tourism!AA6","v":1778.9876396497268},{"$f":"Tourism!AB6","v":1811.0094171634219},{"$f":"Tourism!AC6","v":1843.6075866723634},{"$f":"Tourism!AD6","v":1876.792523232466},{"$f":"Tourism!AE6","v":1910.5747886506504},{"$f":"Tourism!AF6","v":1944.9651348463622},{"$f":"Tourism!AG6","v":1979.9745072735966},{"$f":"Tourism!AH6","v":2015.6140484045213}]
[null,"Aircraft movements",{"$f":"C6*2","v":3054},{"$f":"D6*2","v":3052},2888,2788,2924,2976.6320000000001,3030.2113760000002,3084.7551807680002,3140.2807740218241,3196.805827954217,3254.348332857393,3312.926602848826,3372.5592817001047,3433.2653487707066,3495.0641250485792,3557.9752792994536,3622.0188343268437,3687.2151733447267,3753.585046464932,3821.1495773013007,3889.9302696927243,3959.9490145471932,4031.2280968090427]
[null,"Inbound flights per day",{"$f":"C6/365","v":4.183561643835616},{"$f":"D6/365","v":4.1808219178082195},3.956164383561644,3.8191780821917809,4.0054794520547947,4.0775780821917813,4.1509744876712329,4.2256920284493154,4.3017544849614024,4.3791860656907078,4.4580114148731411,4.5382556203408573,4.6199442215069926,4.7031032174941183,4.7877590754090127,4.8739387387663751,4.9616696360641699,5.0509796895133245,5.1418973239245647,5.2344514757552068,5.3286716023188001,5.4245876911605384,5.5222302696014287]
[]
[null,"Passenger arrivals",{"$f":"Tourism!L10","v":8939},{"$f":"Tourism!M10","v":9523},{"$f":"Tourism!N10","v":9671},{"$f":"Tourism!O10","v":9676},{"$f":"Tourism!P10","v":9733},{"$f":"Tourism!Q10","v":9908.1939999999995},{"$f":"Tourism!R10","v":10086.541492},{"$f":"Tourism!S10","v":10268.099238856001},{"$f":"Tourism!T10","v":10452.925025155409},{"$f":"Tourism!U10","v":10641.077675608207},{"$f":"Tourism!V10","v":10832.617073769155},{"$f":"Tourism!W10","v":11027.604181097},{"$f":"Tourism!X10","v":11226.101056356747},{"$f":"Tourism!Y10","v":11428.170875371168},{"$f":"Tourism!Z10","v":11633.87795112785},{"$f":"Tourism!AA10","v":11843.287754248151},{"$f":"Tourism!AB10","v":12056.466933824619},{"$f":"Tourism!AC10","v":12273.483338633461},{"$f":"Tourism!AD10","v":12494.406038728865},{"$f":"Tourism!AE10","v":12719.305347425985},{"$f":"Tourism!AF10","v":12948.252843679653},{"$f":"Tourism!AG10","v":13181.321394865887},{"$f":"Tourism!AH10","v":13418.585179973474}]
[null,"Passengers per flight",{"$f":"C10/C6","v":5.8539620170268503},{"$f":"D10/D6","v":6.2404980340760154},6.6973684210526319,6.9411764705882355,6.6573187414500685,6.6573187414500676,6.6573187414500685,6.6573187414500685,6.6573187414500694,6.6573187414500694,6.6573187414500694,6.6573187414500694,6.6573187414500703,6.6573187414500703,6.6573187414500712,6.6573187414500703,6.6573187414500712,6.6573187414500712,6.6573187414500712,6.6573187414500721,6.6573187414500721,{"$f":"X10/X6","v":6.6573187414500721},{"$f":"Y10/Y6","v":6.657318741450073}]
[]
[null,"Routine aircraft maintenance hours per year",{"$f":"C8*mnt_hrs","v":849.26301369863006},{"$f":"D8*mnt_hrs","v":848.70684931506855},803.1013698630137,775.29315068493156,813.11232876712336,827.74835068493155,842.64782099726028,857.81548177521097,873.25616044716469,888.97477133521363,904.97631721924768,921.26589092919403,937.84867696591948,954.72995315130606,971.91509230802956,989.40956396957415,1007.2189361210264,1025.3488769712048,1043.8051567566865,1062.5936495783069,1081.7203352707165,1101.1913013055894,1121.0127447290899]
[null,"Routine aircraft maintenance costs per year",{"$f":"C13*mnt_cost","v":179219.97378082189},{"$f":"D13*mnt_cost","v":179102.60641095892},169478.4820821918,163610.11358904111,171591.09473972605,174679.7344450411,177823.96966505185,181024.80111902277,184283.24753916517,187600.34599487012,190977.15222277783,194414.74096278782,197914.20630011798,201476.66201352011,205103.24192976349,208795.10028449923,212553.41208962022,216379.37350723337,220274.20223036356,224239.13787051011,228275.44235217932,232384.40031451854,236567.31952017985]
[]
[null,"Foreign object damage (FOD) runway strikes per year",{"$f":"C7*FOD/10^4","v":0.48864000000000007},0.48831999999999998,0.46207999999999999,0.44608000000000003,0.46784000000000003,0.47626112000000004,0.48483382016000004,0.49356082892288006,0.50244492384349182,0.5114889324726748,0.52069573325718288,0.53006825645581224,0.53960948507201678,0.54932245580331307,0.55921026000777274,0.5692760446879126,0.57952301349229496,0.58995442773515638,0.60057360743438915,0.61138393236820809,0.62238884315083598,0.63359184232755095,0.64499649548944693]
[{"$f":"A50","v":1},"Foreign object damage (FOD) aircraft repair costs per year",{"$f":"C7*FOD_cost/10^4","v":7138.9265640000003},7134.2514319999991,6750.8906079999997,6517.134008,6835.0429840000006,6958.0737577120008,7083.3190853508158,7210.8188288871306,7340.6135678070996,7472.7446120276272,7607.2540150441246,7744.1845873149186,7883.5799098865864,8025.4843482645456,8169.9430665333066,8317.0020417309061,8466.7080784820628,8619.1088238947395,8774.252782724845,8932.1893328138922,9092.9687408045429,9256.6421781390236,9423.2617373455269]
[{"$f":"A51","v":2},"Lost revenue from disabled aircraft",{"$f":"airfare*C11*C16*FOD_days","v":686.51520000000016},{"$f":"airfare*D11*D16","v":731.3664},742.7328,743.11680000000013,747.49440000000004,760.94929919999993,774.64638658560011,788.59002154414088,802.78464193193543,817.23476548671044,831.94499126547112,846.92000110824972,862.16456112819822,877.68352322850581,893.48182664661908,909.56449952625803,925.93666051773062,942.60352040705004,959.57038377437686,976.84265068231559,994.42581839459751,1012.3254831257002,1030.5473418219631]
[]
[null,"Total cost of FOD strikes per year",{"$f":"SUM(C17:C18)","v":7825.4417640000001},7865.617831999999,7493.6234079999995,7260.2508079999998,7582.5373840000011,7719.0230569120004,7857.9654719364162,7999.4088504312713,8143.3982097390353,8289.9793775143371,8439.1990063095964,8591.104588423168,8745.7444710147847,8903.1678714930513,9063.4248931799266,9226.5665412571634,9392.6447389997938,9561.7123443017899,9733.8231664992218,9909.0319834962083,10087.39455919914,10268.967661264724,10453.809079167489]
[]
[]
[null,"With Project"]
[null,"Inbound flights",{"$f":"Tourism!L22","v":1527},{"$f":"Tourism!M22","v":1526},{"$f":"Tourism!N22","v":1444},{"$f":"Tourism!O22","v":1394},{"$f":"Tourism!P22","v":1462},{"$f":"Tourism!Q22","v":1605},{"$f":"Tourism!R22","v":1669.2},{"$f":"Tourism!S22","v":1699.2456},{"$f":"Tourism!T22","v":1729.8320208},{"$f":"Tourism!U22","v":1760.9689971744001},{"$f":"Tourism!V22","v":1792.6664391235392},{"$f":"Tourism!W22","v":1824.9344350277629},{"$f":"Tourism!X22","v":1857.7832548582626},{"$f":"Tourism!Y22","v":1891.2233534457114},{"$f":"Tourism!Z22","v":1925.2653738077342},{"$f":"Tourism!AA22","v":1959.9201505362735},{"$f":"Tourism!AB22","v":1995.1987132459265},{"$f":"Tourism!AC22","v":2031.1122900843532},{"$f":"Tourism!AD22","v":2067.6723113058715},{"$f":"Tourism!AE22","v":2104.8904129093771},{"$f":"Tourism!AF22","v":2142.7784403417459},{"$f":"Tourism!AG22","v":2181.3484522678973},{"$f":"Tourism!AH22","v":2220.6127244087197}]
[null,"Aircraft movements",{"$f":"C24*2","v":3054},{"$f":"D24*2","v":3052},2888,2788,2924,3210,3338.4,3398.4911999999999,3459.6640416,3521.9379943488002,3585.3328782470785,3649.8688700555258,3715.5665097165252,3782.4467068914228,3850.5307476154685,3919.8403010725469,3990.3974264918529,4062.2245801687063,4135.344622611743,4209.7808258187542,4285.5568806834917,4362.6969045357946,4441.2254488174394]
[null,"Inbound flights per day",{"$f":"C24/365","v":4.183561643835616},{"$f":"D24/365","v":4.1808219178082195},3.956164383561644,3.8191780821917809,4.0054794520547947,4.397260273972603,4.5731506849315071,4.6554673972602743,4.7392658104109593,4.8245725949983562,4.9114149017083264,4.9998203699390764,5.0898171365979801,5.1814338450567439,5.2746996542677653,5.369644248044585,5.4662978445093877,5.5646912057105569,5.6648556474133462,5.7668230490667867,5.8706258639499884,5.9762971295010887,6.0838704778321091]
[]
[null,"Passenger arrivals",{"$f":"Tourism!L26","v":8939},{"$f":"Tourism!M26","v":9523},{"$f":"Tourism!N26","v":9671},{"$f":"Tourism!O26","v":9676},{"$f":"Tourism!P26","v":9733},{"$f":"Tourism!Q26","v":10806},{"$f":"Tourism!R26","v":11238.24},{"$f":"Tourism!S26","v":11440.528319999999},{"$f":"Tourism!T26","v":11646.45782976},{"$f":"Tourism!U26","v":11856.094070695681},{"$f":"Tourism!V26","v":12069.503763968203},{"$f":"Tourism!W26","v":12286.754831719631},{"$f":"Tourism!X26","v":12507.916418690584},{"$f":"Tourism!Y26","v":12733.058914227015},{"$f":"Tourism!Z26","v":12962.253974683101},{"$f":"Tourism!AA26","v":13195.574546227397},{"$f":"Tourism!AB26","v":13433.09488805949},{"$f":"Tourism!AC26","v":13674.890596044561},{"$f":"Tourism!AD26","v":13921.038626773363},{"$f":"Tourism!AE26","v":14171.617322055283},{"$f":"Tourism!AF26","v":14426.706433852278},{"$f":"Tourism!AG26","v":14686.387149661619},{"$f":"Tourism!AH26","v":14950.742118355529}]
[null,"Passengers per flight",{"$f":"C28/C24","v":5.8539620170268503},{"$f":"D28/D24","v":6.2404980340760154},6.6973684210526319,6.9411764705882355,6.6573187414500685,6.7327102803738317,6.7327102803738317,6.7327102803738317,6.7327102803738317,6.7327102803738317,6.7327102803738326,6.7327102803738326,6.7327102803738326,6.7327102803738326,6.7327102803738317,6.7327102803738326,6.7327102803738317,6.7327102803738317,6.7327102803738317,6.7327102803738317,6.7327102803738317,6.7327102803738317,6.7327102803738317]
[]
[null,"Routine aircraft maintenance hours per year",{"$f":"C26*mnt_hrs","v":849.26301369863006},{"$f":"D26*mnt_hrs","v":848.70684931506855},803.1013698630137,775.29315068493156,813.11232876712336,{"$f":"H26*mnt_hrs*(1-mnt_red)","v":446.32191780821921},464.17479452054795,472.52994082191782,481.03547975671239,489.69411839233317,498.50861252339513,507.48176754881626,516.616439364695,525.91553527325948,535.38201490817823,545.01889117652536,554.82923121770284,564.81615737962147,574.98284821245466,585.3325394802788,595.86852519092383,606.5941586443605,617.51285349995908]
[null,"Routine aircraft maintenance costs per year",{"$f":"C31*mnt_cost","v":179219.97378082189},179102.60641095892,169478.4820821918,163610.11358904111,171591.09473972605,94187.314315068506,97954.806887671235,99717.993411649324,101512.91729305901,103340.14980433407,105200.27250081208,107093.8774058267,109021.56719913159,110983.95540871595,112981.66660607286,115015.33660498215,117085.61266387183,119193.15369182151,121338.6304582743,123522.72580652323,125746.13487104066,128009.5652987194,130313.73747409637]
[]
[null,"Total aircraft routine maintenance savings per year",{"$f":"C14-C32","v":0},0,0,0,0,{"$f":"H14-H32","v":80492.420129972597},79869.16277738061,81306.807707373446,82770.330246106154,84260.196190536051,85776.879721965757,87320.863556961122,88892.639100986387,{"$f":"P14-P32","v":90492.70660480416},92121.575323690631,93779.763679517084,95467.799425748395,97186.219815411852,98935.571772089257,100716.41206398688,102529.30748113866,104374.83501579914,106253.58204608348]
[]
[null,"Foreign object damage (FOD) runway strikes per year",{"$f":"C16","v":0.48864000000000007},{"$f":"D16","v":0.48831999999999998},{"$f":"E16","v":0.46207999999999999},{"$f":"F16","v":0.44608000000000003},{"$f":"G16","v":0.46784000000000003},{"$f":"H16*(1-FOD_red)","v":0.23813056000000002},0.24241691008000002,0.24678041446144003,0.25122246192174591,0.2557444662363374,0.26034786662859144,0.26503412822790612,0.26980474253600839,0.27466122790165653,0.27960513000388637,0.2846380223439563,0.28976150674614748,0.29497721386757819,0.30028680371719457,0.30569196618410405,0.31119442157541799,0.31679592116377547,0.32249824774472347]
[null,"Foreign object damage (FOD) repair costs per year",{"$f":"C25*FOD_cost/10^4","v":7138.9265640000003},{"$f":"D25*FOD_cost/10^4","v":7134.2514319999991},{"$f":"E25*FOD_cost/10^4","v":6750.8906079999997},{"$f":"F25*FOD_cost/10^4","v":6517.134008},{"$f":"G25*FOD_cost/10^4","v":6835.0429840000006},{"$f":"H25*(1-FOD_red)*FOD_cost/10^4","v":3751.7934299999997},{"$f":"I25*(1-FOD_red)*FOD_cost/10^4","v":3901.8651671999996},3972.0987402095998,4043.5965175333731,4116.3812548489732,4190.4761174362548,4265.9046875501072,4342.6909719260093,4420.8594094206783,4500.43487879025,4581.4427066084745,4663.9086753274269,4747.8590314833209,4833.3204940500209,4920.3202629429215,5008.8860276758933,5099.0459761740594,5190.828803745193]
[null,"Lost revenue from disabled aircraft",{"$f":"airfare*C29*C36*FOD_days","v":686.51520000000016},731.3664,742.7328,743.11680000000013,747.49440000000004,384.78337665196261,391.70947743169796,398.76024802546851,405.93793248992688,413.24481527474569,420.68322194969113,428.25551994478559,435.96411930379168,443.81147345125993,451.80007997338259,459.93248141290348,468.2112660783356,476.63906886774578,485.21857210736516,493.95250640529764,502.84365152059314,511.89483724796372,521.10894431842712]
[]
[null,"Total cost of FOD strikes per year",{"$f":"SUM(C37:C38)","v":7825.4417640000001},{"$f":"SUM(D37:D38)","v":7865.617831999999},7493.6234079999995,7260.2508079999998,7582.5373840000011,4136.5768066519622,4293.574644631698,4370.858988235068,4449.5344500233005,4529.6260701237188,4611.1593393859457,4694.1602074948923,4778.6550912298007,4864.6708828719384,4952.2349587636327,5041.3751880213777,5132.1199414057628,5224.4981003510666,5318.5390661573856,5414.2727693482193,5511.7296791964864,5610.940813422023,5711.9377480636203]
[]
[null,"FOD cost savings per year",{"$f":"C20-C40","v":0},0,0,0,0,3582.4462502600381,{"$f":"I17-I37","v":3181.4539181508162},3238.7200886775308,3297.0170502737265,3356.363357178654,3416.7778976078698,3478.2798997648115,3540.8889379605771,3604.6249388438673,3669.5081877430566,3735.5593351224315,3802.7994031546359,3871.2497924114186,3940.9322886748241,4011.8690698709706,4084.0827131286496,4157.5962019649642,4232.4329336003339]
[]
[null,"Total aircraft operating cost savings per year",{"$f":"SUM(C34,C42)","v":0},{"$f":"SUM(D34,D42)","v":0},0,0,0,{"$f":"SUM(H34,H42)","v":84074.866380232634},83050.616695531426,84545.52779605097,86067.347296379885,87616.5595477147,89193.657619573627,90799.143456725928,92433.52803894697,94097.331543648033,95791.083511433681,97515.323014639522,99270.598828903036,101057.46960782327,102876.50406076408,104728.28113385785,106613.39019426731,108532.4312177641,110486.01497968381,null,"Avg Post-Project"]
[null,"Aircraft operating cost savings per inbound flight",{"$f":"C44/C24","v":0},{"$f":"D44/D24","v":0},0,0,0,{"$f":"H44/H24","v":52.38309431790195},49.754742808250313,49.754742808250306,49.754742808250299,49.754742808250285,49.75474280825032,49.754742808250306,49.754742808250299,49.754742808250306,49.754742808250292,49.754742808250313,49.754742808250313,49.754742808250299,49.754742808250299,49.754742808250306,49.75474280825032,49.754742808250306,49.754742808250278,null,{"$f":"AVERAGE(H45:Y45)","v":49.90076233656427}]
[null,"Aircraft operating cost savings per passenger arrival",{"$f":"C44/C28","v":0},{"$f":"D44/D28","v":0},0,0,0,{"$f":"H44/H28","v":7.7803874125701125},7.3900020550843752,7.3900020550843735,7.3900020550843726,7.3900020550843708,7.3900020550843752,7.3900020550843735,7.3900020550843717,7.3900020550843735,7.3900020550843717,7.3900020550843744,7.3900020550843744,7.3900020550843726,7.3900020550843726,7.3900020550843735,7.3900020550843752,7.3900020550843735,7.3900020550843699,null,{"$f":"AVERAGE(H46:Y46)","v":7.4116901305002489}]
[]
[]
[null,"Notes"]
[1,"McCreary (2010), Average cost of FOD damage on a runway per 10K movements. FOD is foreign object debris. This may include nails, plastic bags, or anything that can obstruct airplane movements along the runway."]
[2,"Assuming repair would take 1 day and that Costal Aviation would use the same plane for both flights."]

{"sheet":"Safety","index":8,"n_rows":44,"n_cols":27,"rows_kept":44,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[[1,2,1,7],[0,2,0,6]]}
[null,"Tanzania: Mafia Island Airport",{"$f":"IF('ERR & Sensitivity Analysis'!$I$10=\"N\",\"Note: Current calculations are based on user input and are not the original MCC estimates.\",IF('ERR & Sensitivity Analysis'!$I$14=\"N\",\"Note: Current calculations are based on user input and are not the original MCC estimates.\",0))","v":0},null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Last updated:  8/27/2014"]
[null,"Safety Benefits","<--------------------------    Compact Period    --------------------------->"]
[null,"Project year",-2,-1,0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20]
["Notes","Year",2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2013,2014,2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022,2023,2024,2025,2026,2027,2028,2029,2030]
[null,"Without Project"]
[null,"Inbound flights",{"$f":"Tourism!L6","v":1527},{"$f":"Tourism!M6","v":1526},{"$f":"Tourism!N6","v":1444},{"$f":"Tourism!O6","v":1394},{"$f":"Tourism!P6","v":1462},{"$f":"Tourism!Q6","v":1488.316},{"$f":"Tourism!R6","v":1515.1056880000001},{"$f":"Tourism!S6","v":1542.3775903840001},{"$f":"Tourism!T6","v":1570.140387010912},{"$f":"Tourism!U6","v":1598.4029139771085},{"$f":"Tourism!V6","v":1627.1741664286965},{"$f":"Tourism!W6","v":1656.463301424413},{"$f":"Tourism!X6","v":1686.2796408500524},{"$f":"Tourism!Y6","v":1716.6326743853533},{"$f":"Tourism!Z6","v":1747.5320625242896},{"$f":"Tourism!AA6","v":1778.9876396497268},{"$f":"Tourism!AB6","v":1811.0094171634219},{"$f":"Tourism!AC6","v":1843.6075866723634},{"$f":"Tourism!AD6","v":1876.792523232466},{"$f":"Tourism!AE6","v":1910.5747886506504},{"$f":"Tourism!AF6","v":1944.9651348463622},{"$f":"Tourism!AG6","v":1979.9745072735966},{"$f":"Tourism!AH6","v":2015.6140484045213}]
[{"$f":"A39","v":1},"Aircraft movements",{"$f":"C6*2","v":3054},{"$f":"D6*2","v":3052},2888,2788,2924,2976.6320000000001,3030.2113760000002,3084.7551807680002,3140.2807740218241,3196.805827954217,3254.348332857393,3312.926602848826,3372.5592817001047,3433.2653487707066,3495.0641250485792,3557.9752792994536,3622.0188343268437,3687.2151733447267,3753.585046464932,3821.1495773013007,3889.9302696927243,3959.9490145471932,4031.2280968090427]
[null,"Passenger arrivals",{"$f":"Tourism!L10","v":8939},{"$f":"Tourism!M10","v":9523},{"$f":"Tourism!N10","v":9671},{"$f":"Tourism!O10","v":9676},{"$f":"Tourism!P10","v":9733},{"$f":"Tourism!Q10","v":9908.1939999999995},{"$f":"Tourism!R10","v":10086.541492},{"$f":"Tourism!S10","v":10268.099238856001},{"$f":"Tourism!T10","v":10452.925025155409},{"$f":"Tourism!U10","v":10641.077675608207},{"$f":"Tourism!V10","v":10832.617073769155},{"$f":"Tourism!W10","v":11027.604181097},{"$f":"Tourism!X10","v":11226.101056356747},{"$f":"Tourism!Y10","v":11428.170875371168},{"$f":"Tourism!Z10","v":11633.87795112785},{"$f":"Tourism!AA10","v":11843.287754248151},{"$f":"Tourism!AB10","v":12056.466933824619},{"$f":"Tourism!AC10","v":12273.483338633461},{"$f":"Tourism!AD10","v":12494.406038728865},{"$f":"Tourism!AE10","v":12719.305347425985},{"$f":"Tourism!AF10","v":12948.252843679653},{"$f":"Tourism!AG10","v":13181.321394865887},{"$f":"Tourism!AH10","v":13418.585179973474}]
[null,"Passengers per flight",{"$f":"C8/C6","v":5.8539620170268503},{"$f":"D8/D6","v":6.2404980340760154},6.6973684210526319,6.9411764705882355,6.6573187414500685,6.6573187414500676,6.6573187414500685,6.6573187414500685,6.6573187414500694,6.6573187414500694,6.6573187414500694,6.6573187414500694,6.6573187414500703,6.6573187414500703,6.6573187414500712,6.6573187414500703,6.6573187414500712,6.6573187414500712,6.6573187414500712,6.6573187414500721,6.6573187414500721,6.6573187414500721,6.657318741450073]
[]
[{"$f":"A40","v":2},"Aviation incidents",{"$f":"C7*incident/10^4","v":0.16186200000000001},0.16175600000000001,0.15306400000000001,0.14776400000000001,0.154972,0.157761496,0.16060120292800001,0.16349202458070403,0.16643488102315668,0.16943070888157352,0.17248046164144185,0.17558510995098781,0.17874564193010556,0.18196306348484745,0.18523839862757471,0.18857268980287106,0.19196699821932273,0.19542240418727053,0.19894000746264143,0.20252092759696896,0.20616630429371438,0.20987729777100125,0.2136550891308793]
[3,"Fatal accidents",{"$f":"C7*fatal/10^6","v":1.58808E-2},1.58704E-2,1.5017600000000001E-2,1.4497600000000001E-2,1.5204800000000001E-2,1.5478486400000002E-2,1.5757099155200002E-2,1.6040726939993602E-2,1.6329460024913485E-2,1.6623390305361928E-2,1.6922611330858442E-2,1.7227218334813898E-2,1.7537308264840547E-2,1.7852979813607676E-2,1.8174333450252614E-2,1.8501471452357161E-2,1.8834497938499589E-2,1.9173518901392583E-2,1.9518642241617645E-2,1.9869977801966764E-2,2.0227637402402167E-2,2.0591734875645404E-2,2.0962386103407022E-2]
[]
[{"$f":"A42","v":4},"Hull insurance claims",{"$f":"C11*hull","v":339910.2},339687.60000000003,321434.40000000002,310304.40000000002,325441.2,331299.14159999997,337262.52614880004,343333.25161947845,349513.25014862901,355804.48865130439,362208.96944702789,368728.73089707439,375365.84805322165,382122.43331817962,389000.63711790688,396002.64858602925,403130.69626057771,410387.0487932681,417774.01567154698,425293.94795363484,432949.23901680019,440742.32531910262,448675.68717484653]
[{"$f":"A43","v":5},"Liability insurance claims",{"$f":"C12*C9*liability","v":14163.959919200002},15089.315394399999,15323.823288800002,15331.745852800001,15422.063082400002,15699.6602178832,15982.2541018051,16269.934675637593,16562.793499799067,16860.923782795453,17164.42041088577,17473.379978281719,17787.90081789079,18108.083032612823,18434.028527199855,18765.841040689451,19103.626179421863,19447.491450651458,19797.546296763183,20153.902130104922,20516.672368446809,20885.972471078851,21261.919975558274]
[]
[null,"Total insurance claims",{"$f":"SUM(C14:C15)","v":354074.1599192},{"$f":"SUM(D14:D15)","v":354776.91539440001},336758.22328880004,325636.14585280005,340863.26308240002,346998.80181788316,353244.78025060514,359603.18629511603,366076.04364842805,372665.41243409982,379373.38985791366,386202.11087535613,393153.74887111242,400230.51635079243,407434.66564510675,414768.48962671869,422234.32243999955,429834.54024391953,437571.56196831015,445447.85008373973,453465.91138524702,461628.29779018147,469937.60715040483]
[]
[null,"With Project"]
[null,"Inbound flights",{"$f":"Tourism!L22","v":1527},{"$f":"Tourism!M22","v":1526},{"$f":"Tourism!N22","v":1444},{"$f":"Tourism!O22","v":1394},{"$f":"Tourism!P22","v":1462},{"$f":"Tourism!Q22","v":1605},{"$f":"Tourism!R22","v":1669.2},{"$f":"Tourism!S22","v":1699.2456},{"$f":"Tourism!T22","v":1729.8320208},{"$f":"Tourism!U22","v":1760.9689971744001},{"$f":"Tourism!V22","v":1792.6664391235392},{"$f":"Tourism!W22","v":1824.9344350277629},{"$f":"Tourism!X22","v":1857.7832548582626},{"$f":"Tourism!Y22","v":1891.2233534457114},{"$f":"Tourism!Z22","v":1925.2653738077342},{"$f":"Tourism!AA22","v":1959.9201505362735},{"$f":"Tourism!AB22","v":1995.1987132459265},{"$f":"Tourism!AC22","v":2031.1122900843532},{"$f":"Tourism!AD22","v":2067.6723113058715},{"$f":"Tourism!AE22","v":2104.8904129093771},{"$f":"Tourism!AF22","v":2142.7784403417459},{"$f":"Tourism!AG22","v":2181.3484522678973},{"$f":"Tourism!AH22","v":2220.6127244087197}]
[null,"Aircraft movements",{"$f":"C20*2","v":3054},3052,2888,2788,2924,3210,3338.4,3398.4911999999999,3459.6640416,3521.9379943488002,3585.3328782470785,3649.8688700555258,3715.5665097165252,3782.4467068914228,3850.5307476154685,3919.8403010725469,3990.3974264918529,4062.2245801687063,4135.344622611743,4209.7808258187542,4285.5568806834917,4362.6969045357946,4441.2254488174394]
[null,"Passenger arrivals",{"$f":"Tourism!L26","v":8939},{"$f":"Tourism!M26","v":9523},{"$f":"Tourism!N26","v":9671},{"$f":"Tourism!O26","v":9676},{"$f":"Tourism!P26","v":9733},{"$f":"Tourism!Q26","v":10806},{"$f":"Tourism!R26","v":11238.24},{"$f":"Tourism!S26","v":11440.528319999999},{"$f":"Tourism!T26","v":11646.45782976},{"$f":"Tourism!U26","v":11856.094070695681},{"$f":"Tourism!V26","v":12069.503763968203},{"$f":"Tourism!W26","v":12286.754831719631},{"$f":"Tourism!X26","v":12507.916418690584},{"$f":"Tourism!Y26","v":12733.058914227015},{"$f":"Tourism!Z26","v":12962.253974683101},{"$f":"Tourism!AA26","v":13195.574546227397},{"$f":"Tourism!AB26","v":13433.09488805949},{"$f":"Tourism!AC26","v":13674.890596044561},{"$f":"Tourism!AD26","v":13921.038626773363},{"$f":"Tourism!AE26","v":14171.617322055283},{"$f":"Tourism!AF26","v":14426.706433852278},{"$f":"Tourism!AG26","v":14686.387149661619},{"$f":"Tourism!AH26","v":14950.742118355529}]
[null,"Passengers per flight",{"$f":"C22/C20","v":5.8539620170268503},{"$f":"D22/D20","v":6.2404980340760154},6.6973684210526319,6.9411764705882355,6.6573187414500685,6.7327102803738317,6.7327102803738317,6.7327102803738317,6.7327102803738317,6.7327102803738317,6.7327102803738326,6.7327102803738326,6.7327102803738326,6.7327102803738326,6.7327102803738317,6.7327102803738326,6.7327102803738317,6.7327102803738317,6.7327102803738317,6.7327102803738317,6.7327102803738317,6.7327102803738317,6.7327102803738317]
[]
[{"$f":"A44","v":6},"Aviation incidents",{"$f":"C11","v":0.16186200000000001},0.16175600000000001,0.15306400000000001,0.14776400000000001,0.154972,{"$f":"H21*(1-incident_red)*incident/10^4","v":8.5065000000000016E-2},8.8467600000000007E-2,9.0060016800000003E-2,9.1681097102400008E-2,9.3331356850243213E-2,9.5011321273547583E-2,9.6721525056471441E-2,9.8462512507487915E-2,0.10023483773262272,0.10203906481180992,0.1038757679784225,0.10574553180203411,0.10764895137447072,0.10958663249921119,0.11155919188419701,0.11356725733811254,0.11561146797019856,0.11769247439366215]
[null,"Fatal accidents",1.58808E-2,1.58704E-2,1.5017600000000001E-2,1.4497600000000001E-2,1.5204800000000001E-2,{"$f":"H21*(1-incident_red)*fatal/10^6","v":8.3459999999999993E-3},8.6798399999999994E-3,8.8360771200000007E-3,8.9951265081599993E-3,9.1570387853068813E-3,9.3218654834424045E-3,9.489659062144367E-3,9.660472925262965E-3,9.8343614379177002E-3,1.0011379943800219E-2,1.0191584782788622E-2,1.0375033308878817E-2,1.0561783908438637E-2,1.0751896018790532E-2,1.0945430147128761E-2,1.1142447889777078E-2,1.1343011951793066E-2,1.1547186166925343E-2]
[]
[null,"Hull insurance claims",{"$f":"C25*hull","v":339910.2},339687.60000000003,321434.40000000002,310304.40000000002,325441.2,178636.50000000003,185781.96000000002,189126.03528000001,192530.30391504001,195995.84938551075,199523.77467444993,203115.20261859003,206771.27626572462,210493.15923850771,214282.03610480085,218139.11275468726,222065.61678427164,226062.79788638852,230131.92824834349,234274.30295681371,238491.24041003635,242784.08273741696,247154.19622669052]
[null,"Liability insurance claims",{"$f":"C26*C23*liability","v":14163.959919200002},15089.315394399999,15323.823288800002,15331.745852800001,15422.063082400002,8561.1226583999996,8903.5675647359985,9063.8317809012497,9226.98075295747,9393.0664065107067,9562.1416018278996,9734.2601506608007,9909.4768333726952,10087.847416373404,10269.428669868124,10454.278385925752,10642.455396872414,10834.019594016117,11029.031946708408,11227.55452174916,11429.650503140643,11635.384212197174,11844.821128016725]
[]
[null,"Total insurance claims",{"$f":"SUM(C28:C29)","v":354074.1599192},{"$f":"SUM(D28:D29)","v":354776.91539440001},336758.22328880004,325636.14585280005,340863.26308240002,187197.62265840004,194685.52756473602,198189.86706090125,201757.28466799748,205388.91579202146,209085.91627627783,212849.46276925082,216680.75309909732,220581.00665488112,224551.46477466897,228593.39114061301,232708.07218114406,236896.81748040463,241160.96019505191,245501.85747856286,249920.89091317699,254419.46694961414,258999.01735470723]
[]
[null,"Reduced insurance claims due to fewer incidents",{"$f":"C17-C31","v":0},0,0,0,0,159801.17915948312,158559.25268586911,161413.31923421478,164318.75898043058,167276.49664207836,170287.47358163583,173352.64810610531,176472.9957720151,179649.50969591131,182883.20087043778,186175.09848610568,189526.25025885549,192937.7227635149,196410.60177325824,199945.99260517687,203545.02047207003,207208.83084056733,210938.5897956976,null,"Average Post-Project"]
[null,"Insurance claim savings per inbound flight",{"$f":"C33/C20","v":0},0,0,0,0,99.564597607154596,94.991165040659666,94.991165040659681,94.991165040659638,94.991165040659652,94.991165040659695,94.991165040659709,94.991165040659652,94.991165040659624,94.991165040659652,94.991165040659666,94.99116504065961,94.991165040659624,94.991165040659652,94.991165040659652,94.991165040659638,94.991165040659652,94.991165040659666,null,{"$f":"AVERAGE(H34:Y34)","v":95.245244627687114}]
[null,"Insurance claim savings per passenger arrival",{"$f":"C33/C22","v":0},0,0,0,0,14.788189816720628,14.108904302263443,14.108904302263445,14.108904302263438,14.10890430226344,14.108904302263445,14.108904302263449,14.10890430226344,14.108904302263435,14.10890430226344,14.108904302263442,14.108904302263435,14.108904302263436,14.10890430226344,14.10890430226344,14.108904302263438,14.10890430226344,14.108904302263443,null,{"$f":"AVERAGE(H35:Y35)","v":14.14664238639995}]
[]
[]
["Notes"]
[1,"A movement is a take-off or a landing for an airplane. There are 2 movements per flight."]
[2,"Number of incidents estimated based on the incident rate per year for all of Tanzania. An incident is defined here as any type of event that affects the flight operations such as a blown tire, overrunning the runway, hitting a bird, or an accident. One movement is either a take-off or a landing, meaning there are two movements per flight."]
[3,"Based on the fatal accident rate for Africa, 2002-2011 (CAA 2013)."]
[4,"For the purposes of this model, it is assumed that all incidents result in a hull insurance claim and replacement of the aircraft.  This is an extremely generous assumption and should be treated as a maximum estimate for hull insurance claims."]
[5,"For the purposes of this model, it is assumed that a fatal accident results in the death of all passengers on the aircraft.  Liability insurance estimates are based on the minimum coverage allowed by ICAO under the Montreal Convention of 1999, which is equivalent to 100,000 Special Drawing Rights (SDR)."]
[6,"Reduction in incidents and accidents based on assumption set in sensitivity analysis."]

{"sheet":"Tourism","index":9,"n_rows":42,"n_cols":34,"rows_kept":42,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[[1,12,1,16],[0,10,0,14]]}
[null,"Tanzania: Mafia Island Airport",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,{"$f":"IF('ERR & Sensitivity Analysis'!$I$10=\"N\",\"Note: Current calculations are based on user input and are not the original MCC estimates.\",IF('ERR & Sensitivity Analysis'!$I$11=\"N\",\"Note: Current calculations are based on user input and are not the original MCC estimates.\",0))","v":0},null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Last updated:  8/27/2014"]
[null,"Tourism Benefits",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"<-------------------------------    Compact Period    --------------------------------->"]
[null,"Project year",-11,-10,-9,-8,-7,-6,-5,-4,-3,-2,-1,0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20]
["Notes","Year",1999,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2013,2014,2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022,2023,2024,2025,2026,2027,2028,2029,2030]
[{"$f":"A39","v":1},"Without project"]
[{"$f":"A40","v":2},"Inbound flights",1290,1504,1614,2130,2133,2413,2448,2131,1373,1527,1526,1444,1394,1462,{"$f":"P6*(1+growth)","v":1488.316},1515.1056880000001,1542.3775903840001,1570.140387010912,1598.4029139771085,1627.1741664286965,1656.463301424413,1686.2796408500524,1716.6326743853533,1747.5320625242896,1778.9876396497268,1811.0094171634219,1843.6075866723634,1876.792523232466,1910.5747886506504,1944.9651348463622,1979.9745072735966,2015.6140484045213]
[null,"Passengers per flight",{"$f":"C10/C6","v":5.1232558139534881},4.7140957446808507,5.2565055762081787,4.208920187793427,4.6765119549929679,4.9879817654372154,4.5371732026143787,4.5997184420459876,4.6270939548434082,{"$f":"L10/L6","v":5.8539620170268503},{"$f":"M10/M6","v":6.2404980340760154},{"$f":"N10/N6","v":6.6973684210526319},6.9411764705882355,6.6573187414500685,6.6573187414500676,6.6573187414500685,6.6573187414500685,6.6573187414500694,6.6573187414500694,6.6573187414500694,6.6573187414500694,6.6573187414500703,6.6573187414500703,6.6573187414500712,6.6573187414500703,6.6573187414500712,6.6573187414500712,6.6573187414500712,6.6573187414500721,6.6573187414500721,6.6573187414500721,6.657318741450073]
[{"$f":"A41","v":3},"Passenger load factor (% of seats filled)",{"$f":"C7/10","v":0.51232558139534878},0.47140957446808507,0.52565055762081792,0.42089201877934268,0.46765119549929679,0.49879817654372155,0.45371732026143785,0.45997184420459875,0.46270939548434081,{"$f":"L7/10","v":0.58539620170268503},{"$f":"M7/12","v":0.52004150283966799},{"$f":"N7/12","v":0.55811403508771928},0.57843137254901966,0.55477656178750567,0.55477656178750567,0.55477656178750567,0.55477656178750567,0.55477656178750578,0.55477656178750578,0.55477656178750578,0.55477656178750578,0.5547765617875059,0.5547765617875059,0.5547765617875059,0.5547765617875059,0.5547765617875059,0.5547765617875059,0.5547765617875059,0.55477656178750601,0.55477656178750601,0.55477656178750601,0.55477656178750612]
[]
[{"$f":"A40","v":2},"Passenger arrivals",6609,7090,8484,8965,9975,12036,11107,9802,6353,8939,9523,9671,9676,9733,{"$f":"P10*(1+growth)","v":9908.1939999999995},10086.541492,10268.099238856001,10452.925025155409,10641.077675608207,10832.617073769155,11027.604181097,11226.101056356747,11428.170875371168,11633.87795112785,11843.287754248151,12056.466933824619,12273.483338633461,12494.406038728865,12719.305347425985,12948.252843679653,13181.321394865887,13418.585179973474]
[null,"Tourists",{"$f":"C10*tourist","v":2643.6000000000004},{"$f":"D10*tourist","v":2836},{"$f":"E10*tourist","v":3393.6000000000004},{"$f":"F10*tourist","v":3586},{"$f":"G10*tourist","v":3990},{"$f":"H10*tourist","v":4814.4000000000005},{"$f":"I10*tourist","v":4442.8},{"$f":"J10*tourist","v":3920.8},{"$f":"K10*tourist","v":2541.2000000000003},{"$f":"L10*tourist","v":3575.6000000000004},3809.2000000000003,3868.4,3870.4,3893.2000000000003,3963.2775999999999,4034.6165968000005,4107.2396955424001,4181.1700100621638,4256.4310702432831,4333.0468295076626,4411.0416724388006,4490.4404225426988,4571.2683501484671,4653.5511804511398,4737.3151016992606,4822.586773529848,4909.3933354533847,4997.7624154915466,5087.7221389703946,5179.3011374718617,5272.5285579463552,5367.4340719893898]
[null,"Business travelers",{"$f":"C10*business","v":2379.2399999999998},2552.4,3054.24,3227.4,3591,4332.96,3998.52,3528.72,2287.08,{"$f":"L10*business","v":3218.04},3428.2799999999997,3481.56,3483.3599999999997,3503.8799999999997,3566.9498399999998,3631.1549371199999,3696.5157259881603,3763.0530090559473,3830.7879632189542,3899.7421465568959,3969.93750519492,4041.3963802884286,4114.1415151336205,4188.1960624060257,4263.5835915293346,4340.3280961768623,4418.4540019080459,4497.9861739423914,4578.9499250733543,4661.3710237246751,4745.2757021517191,4830.6906647904507]
[null,"Other visitors",{"$f":"C10-SUM(C11:C12)","v":1586.1599999999999},1701.6000000000004,2036.1599999999999,2151.6000000000004,2394,2888.6399999999994,2665.6800000000003,2352.4799999999996,1524.7199999999993,{"$f":"L10-SUM(L11:L12)","v":2145.3599999999997},{"$f":"M10-SUM(M11:M12)","v":2285.5200000000004},2321.04,2322.2399999999998,2335.92,2377.9665599999998,2420.7699580799999,2464.3438173254399,2508.7020060372979,2553.8586421459695,2599.8280977045961,2646.6250034632794,2694.26425352562,2742.7610100890815,2792.1307082706844,{"$f":"AA10-SUM(AA11:AA12)","v":2842.3890610195558},{"$f":"AB10-SUM(AB11:AB12)","v":2893.5520641179082},{"$f":"AC10-SUM(AC11:AC12)","v":2945.6360012720306},{"$f":"AD10-SUM(AD11:AD12)","v":2998.6574492949276},{"$f":"AE10-SUM(AE11:AE12)","v":3052.6332833822362},{"$f":"AF10-SUM(AF11:AF12)","v":3107.5806824831161},{"$f":"AG10-SUM(AG11:AG12)","v":3163.5171347678133},{"$f":"AH10-SUM(AH11:AH12)","v":3220.4604431936332}]
[]
[{"$f":"A42","v":4},"Bed-nights consumed",{"$f":"C10*stay","v":41901.06},44950.6,53788.56,56838.1,63241.5,76308.240000000005,70418.38,62144.68,40278.019999999997,{"$f":"L10*stay","v":56673.26},60375.82,61314.14,61345.84,61707.22,62817.949959999998,63948.673059280001,65099.749174347045,66271.544659485298,67464.432463356032,68678.792247696445,69915.010508154985,71173.480697301769,72454.603349853205,73758.78621015056,75086.444361933274,76438.000360448073,77813.884366936138,79214.534285540998,80640.395902680742,82091.923028928999,83569.577643449724,85073.830041031819]
[null,"Hotel occupancy rate",{"$f":"C15/bed_max","v":0.40138959670466517},{"$f":"D15/bed_max","v":0.43060254813679472},{"$f":"E15/bed_max","v":0.51526544688188525},{"$f":"F15/bed_max","v":0.54447839831401479},{"$f":"G15/bed_max","v":0.60581952294281061},{"$f":"H15/bed_max","v":0.73099185745761097},{"$f":"I15/bed_max","v":0.67457016955647098},{"$f":"J15/bed_max","v":0.59531257783312574},{"$f":"K15/bed_max","v":0.38584174729380205},{"$f":"L15/bed_max","v":0.54289931985822404},0.57836785132675539,0.58735645176741069,0.58766012070121654,0.5911219465466041,0.60176214158444297,0.61259386013296291,0.62362054961535629,0.63484571950843283,0.64627294245958455,0.65790585542385716,0.66974816082148658,0.68180362771627334,0.69407609301516626,0.70656946268943921,0.71928771301784922,0.7322348918521705,0.74541511990550946,0.75883259206380882,0.77249157872095742,0.78639642713793467,0.80055156282641748,0.81496149095729298]
[]
[null,"Tourism spending",{"$f":"C10*stay*spend","v":3991835.9999999995},4282360,5124336,5414860,6024900,7269744,6708628,5920408,3837211.9999999995,5399156,5751892,5841284,5844303.9999999991,5878732,5984549.176,6092271.0611680001,6201931.9402690241,6313566.7151938677,6427210.9160673572,6542900.7125565698,6660672.9253825881,6780565.0380394747,6902615.2087241849,7026862.2824812206,7153345.8035658831,7282106.0280300686,7413183.9365346096,7546621.2473922335,7682460.4298452949,7820744.7175825099,7961518.1224989956,8104825.4487039773]
[]
[]
[null,"With project"]
[null,"Inbound flights",{"$f":"C6","v":1290},1504,1614,2130,2133,2413,2448,2131,1373,{"$f":"L6","v":1527},{"$f":"M6","v":1526},{"$f":"N6","v":1444},{"$f":"O6","v":1394},{"$f":"P6","v":1462},1605,{"$f":"Q22*(1+growth_jump)","v":1669.2},{"$f":"R22*(1+growth)","v":1699.2456},1729.8320208,1760.9689971744001,1792.6664391235392,1824.9344350277629,1857.7832548582626,1891.2233534457114,1925.2653738077342,1959.9201505362735,1995.1987132459265,2031.1122900843532,2067.6723113058715,2104.8904129093771,2142.7784403417459,2181.3484522678973,2220.6127244087197]
[null,"Passengers per flight",{"$f":"C26/C22","v":5.1232558139534881},4.7140957446808507,5.2565055762081787,4.208920187793427,4.6765119549929679,4.9879817654372154,4.5371732026143787,4.5997184420459876,4.6270939548434082,{"$f":"L26/L22","v":5.8539620170268503},{"$f":"M26/M22","v":6.2404980340760154},6.6973684210526319,6.9411764705882355,6.6573187414500685,6.7327102803738317,6.7327102803738317,6.7327102803738317,6.7327102803738317,6.7327102803738317,6.7327102803738326,6.7327102803738326,6.7327102803738326,6.7327102803738326,6.7327102803738317,6.7327102803738326,6.7327102803738317,6.7327102803738317,6.7327102803738317,6.7327102803738317,6.7327102803738317,6.7327102803738317,6.7327102803738317]
[null,"Passenger load factor (% of seats filled)",{"$f":"C23/12","v":0.42693798449612402},0.39284131205673756,0.43804213135068154,0.35074334898278559,0.38970932958274734,0.41566514711976793,0.37809776688453156,0.38330987017049895,0.38559116290361733,{"$f":"L23/12","v":0.48783016808557084},{"$f":"M23/12","v":0.52004150283966799},0.55811403508771928,0.57843137254901966,0.55477656178750567,0.56105919003115268,0.56105919003115268,0.56105919003115268,0.56105919003115268,0.56105919003115268,0.56105919003115268,0.56105919003115268,0.56105919003115268,0.56105919003115268,0.56105919003115268,0.56105919003115268,0.56105919003115268,0.56105919003115268,0.56105919003115268,0.56105919003115268,0.56105919003115268,0.56105919003115268,0.56105919003115268]
[]
[1,"Passenger arrivals",{"$f":"C10","v":6609},7090,8484,8965,9975,12036,11107,9802,6353,{"$f":"L10","v":8939},{"$f":"M10","v":9523},{"$f":"N10","v":9671},{"$f":"O10","v":9676},{"$f":"P10","v":9733},10806,{"$f":"Q26*(1+growth_jump)","v":11238.24},{"$f":"R26*(1+growth)","v":11440.528319999999},11646.45782976,11856.094070695681,12069.503763968203,12286.754831719631,12507.916418690584,12733.058914227015,12962.253974683101,13195.574546227397,13433.09488805949,13674.890596044561,13921.038626773363,14171.617322055283,14426.706433852278,14686.387149661619,14950.742118355529]
[null,"Tourists",{"$f":"C26*tourist","v":2643.6000000000004},{"$f":"D26*tourist","v":2836},{"$f":"E26*tourist","v":3393.6000000000004},{"$f":"F26*tourist","v":3586},{"$f":"G26*tourist","v":3990},{"$f":"H26*tourist","v":4814.4000000000005},{"$f":"I26*tourist","v":4442.8},{"$f":"J26*tourist","v":3920.8},{"$f":"K26*tourist","v":2541.2000000000003},{"$f":"L26*tourist","v":3575.6000000000004},3809.2000000000003,3868.4,3870.4,3893.2000000000003,4322.4000000000005,4495.2960000000003,4576.2113280000003,4658.5831319039999,4742.4376282782723,4827.8015055872811,4914.7019326878526,5003.1665674762335,5093.223565690806,5184.9015898732405,5278.2298184909596,5373.2379552237962,5469.9562384178244,5568.4154507093454,5668.6469288221133,5770.6825735409111,5874.5548598646483,5980.2968473422115]
[null,"Business travelers",{"$f":"C26*business","v":2379.2399999999998},2552.4,3054.24,3227.4,3591,4332.96,3998.52,3528.72,2287.08,{"$f":"L26*business","v":3218.04},3428.2799999999997,3481.56,3483.3599999999997,3503.8799999999997,3890.16,4045.7664,4118.5901951999995,4192.7248187136001,4268.1938654504447,4345.0213550285534,4423.2317394190668,4502.8499107286098,4583.9012091217255,4666.4114308859162,4750.4068366418624,4835.9141597014159,4922.9606145760417,5011.5739056384109,5101.7822359399015,5193.6143161868195,5287.0993738781826,5382.26716260799]
[null,"Other visitors",{"$f":"C26-SUM(C27:C28)","v":1586.1599999999999},1701.6000000000004,2036.1599999999999,2151.6000000000004,2394,2888.6399999999994,2665.6800000000003,2352.4799999999996,1524.7199999999993,{"$f":"L26-SUM(L27:L28)","v":2145.3599999999997},{"$f":"M26-SUM(M27:M28)","v":2285.5200000000004},2321.04,2322.2399999999998,2335.92,2593.4399999999987,2697.1775999999991,2745.7267967999996,2795.1498791424001,2845.4625769669638,2896.6809033523696,2948.8211596127112,3001.8999404857404,3055.9341394144831,3110.9409539239441,3166.9378910945761,3223.9427731342785,3281.9737430506957,3341.0492704256067,3401.1881572932671,3462.4095441245463,3524.7329159187884,3588.1781084053273]
[]
[null,"Bed-nights",{"$f":"C26*stay","v":41901.06},44950.6,53788.56,56838.1,63241.5,76308.240000000005,70418.38,62144.68,40278.019999999997,{"$f":"L26*stay","v":56673.26},60375.82,61314.14,61345.84,61707.22,68510.039999999994,71250.441599999991,72532.949548799996,73838.542640678395,75167.636408210616,76520.6538635584,77898.025633102458,79300.190094498292,80727.593516199267,82180.690199490855,83659.94262308169,85165.821590297157,86698.806378922513,88259.384893743118,89848.053821830486,91465.318790623438,93111.69452885467,94787.705030374054]
[null,"Hotel occupancy rate",{"$f":"C31/bed_max","v":0.40138959670466517},{"$f":"D31/bed_max","v":0.43060254813679472},{"$f":"E31/bed_max","v":0.51526544688188525},{"$f":"F31/bed_max","v":0.54447839831401479},{"$f":"G31/bed_max","v":0.60581952294281061},{"$f":"H31/bed_max","v":0.73099185745761097},{"$f":"I31/bed_max","v":0.67457016955647098},{"$f":"J31/bed_max","v":0.59531257783312574},{"$f":"K31/bed_max","v":0.38584174729380205},{"$f":"L31/bed_max","v":0.54289931985822404},0.57836785132675539,0.58735645176741069,0.58766012070121654,0.5911219465466041,0.65628929974135453,0.68254087173100864,0.69482660742216684,0.70733348635576587,0.72006548911016965,0.73302666791415272,0.74622114793660754,0.75965312859946632,0.77332688491425683,0.78724676884271338,0.80141721068188232,0.81584272047415607,0.83052788944269096,0.84547739145265943,0.86069598449880724,0.87618851221978578,0.89195990543974202,0.90801518373765744]
[]
[null,"Visitor spending",{"$f":"C26*stay*spend","v":3991835.9999999995},4282360,5124336,5414860,6024900,7269744,6708628,5920408,3837211.9999999995,{"$f":"L26*stay*spend","v":5399156},5751892,5841284,5844303.9999999991,5878732,6526823.9999999991,6787896.959999999,6910079.1052799998,7034460.5291750394,7161080.8187001906,7289980.2734367941,7421199.9183586566,7554781.5168891111,7690767.5841931161,7829201.4007085925,7970127.0259213466,8113589.3123879312,8259633.9200109141,8408307.3305711113,8559656.8625213895,8713730.6860467754,8870577.8383956179,9030248.239486739]
[]
[null,"Change in visitor spending",{"$f":"C34-C18","v":0},0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,{"$f":"L34-L18","v":0},0,0,0,0,542274.82399999909,695625.89883199893,708147.16501097567,720893.8139811717,733869.90263283346,747079.56088022422,760526.99297606852,774216.47884963639,788152.37546893116,802339.11822737195,816781.22235546354,831483.28435786255,846449.98347630445,861686.08317887783,877196.43267609458,892985.96846426558,909059.71589662228,925422.79078276176]
[]
[null,"Notes"]
[1,"Actual statistics for 1999-2010 shown to illustrate the long-term trend of inbound flights and passenger arrivals at Mafia Airport.  Flight and arrival projections begin in 2014."]
[2,"Statistics from 1999-2006 from Tanzania Airports Authority; statistics from 2007-2012 from Busalama Baseline Evaluation Report; and statistics for 2013 from "]
[3,"Predicted by dividing the number of projected passengers by 90% of a Cessna 208's full-capacity which is 12.",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"2. Bed-night capacity is 104,390 (assuming double-occupancy)."]
[4,"3.5 avg. nights/ person. A bed-night is the amount of available beds per night in a hotel."]

{"sheet":"Demand","index":10,"n_rows":46,"n_cols":18,"rows_kept":46,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[[25,10,25,12],[25,14,25,16],[2,8,2,16]]}
[null,"Tanzania: Mafia Island Airport",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Last updated:  8/27/2014"]
[null,"Demand for Flights to Mafia Island"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,{"$f":"IF('ERR & Sensitivity Analysis'!$I$10=\"N\",\"Note: Current calculations are based on user input and are not the original MCC estimates.\",IF('ERR & Sensitivity Analysis'!$I$14=\"N\",\"Note: Current calculations are based on user input and are not the original MCC estimates.\",0))","v":0}]
[{"$f":"A42","v":1},{"$f":"120*2","v":240},"Round-trip (DAR-MFA), 2013"]
[{"$f":"A43","v":2},10806,"Passenger arrivals, 2013"]
[3,8.5491437749552688,"Average aircraft operating cost savings per passenger arrival"]
[]
[null,"Estimating the demand equation based on 2013 prices and arrivals"]
[]
[null,"P","=","price of roundtrip ticket Dar es Salaam-Mafia, 2013"]
[null,"Q","=","total passenger arrivals at Mafia Airport, 2013"]
[null,"m","=","elasticity of demand for air travel"]
[]
[null,"ln (P)","=","m *","ln (Q)","+","b"]
[null,"ln ($240)","=","m *","ln (10,806)","+","b"]
[{"$f":"A45","v":4},{"$f":"LN(240)","v":5.4806389233419912},"=",{"$f":"-1.4*0.6*1.1","v":-0.92400000000000004},{"$f":"LN(B5)","v":9.2878568144040106},"+","b"]
[null,{"$f":"B16","v":5.4806389233419912},"=",{"$f":"D16*E16","v":-8.5819796965093058},null,"+","b"]
[null,{"$f":"B17-D17","v":14.062618619851296},"=",null,null,null,"b"]
[]
[null,"ln (P)","=",{"$f":"D16","v":-0.92400000000000004},"ln(Q)","+",{"$f":"B18","v":14.062618619851296}]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Without Project",null,null,null,"With Project"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"P",928.15626333033845,489.18077832504429,257.82063143555843,240,209.78421917922293,177.25942832733708,153.72712699277463,{"$f":"airfare-B6","v":231.45085622504473}]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Q",2500,5000,10000,10806,12500,15000,17500,{"$f":"D37","v":11238.6221251753}]
[]
[{"$f":"A46","v":5},"Estimating the increase in demand with project, based on airline cost savings per passenger"]
[null,"ln (P)","=",{"$f":"D20","v":-0.92400000000000004},"ln(Q)","+",{"$f":"G20","v":14.062618619851296}]
[null,"ln($240-cost savings)","=",{"$f":"D31","v":-0.92400000000000004},"ln(Q)","+",{"$f":"G31","v":14.062618619851296}]
[null,"ln($240-8.55)","=",{"$f":"D32","v":-0.92400000000000004},"ln(Q)","+",{"$f":"G32","v":14.062618619851296}]
[null,{"$f":"LN(airfare-B6)","v":5.4443675668657479},"=",{"$f":"D33","v":-0.92400000000000004},"ln(Q)","+",{"$f":"G32","v":14.062618619851296}]
[null,{"$f":"B34-G34","v":-8.6182510529855492},"=",-0.92400000000000004,"ln(Q)"]
[null,{"$f":"B35/D35","v":9.3271115292051388},"=",null,"ln (Q)"]
[null,"Q","=",{"$f":"EXP(B36)","v":11238.6221251753}]
[]
[null,{"$f":"(D37-B5)/B5","v":4.0035362314945352E-2},null,"percent increase in equilibrium arrivals due to lower airfares"]
[]
[null,"Notes"]
[1,"Coastal Aviation website.  http://www.coastal.co.tz/flights/scheduled-flights/"]
[2,"Tanzania Airports Authority data."]
[3,"Calculated from the 'Aircraft' worksheet by calculating the average savings per passenger, assuming the \"with project\" scenario had the same number of flights per year as the \"without project\" scenario (to eliminate bias from more flights in the \"with project\" scenario)."]
[4,"InterVISTAS (2007), p. 34-36.  The elasticity is calculated by multiplying three factors cited in the InterVISTAS report: the -1.4 route/market level base elasticity, a 0.60 elasticity multiplier for intra-Sub-Saharan Africa fligths, and the 1.1 short-haul adjustor."]
[5,"This formula attempts to calculate the one-time change in demand for air travel to Mafia as a result of the upgraded airport facilities.  It assumes that airlines pass on all aircraft operating cost savings to consumers in the form of reduced ticket prices, or that the lower operating costs induce new air carriers to enter the market, increasing competition and driving down prices.  This is a strong assumption, as it could just as easily match the status quo if no new carriers enter the market and existing carriers bank the savings rather than passing them to consumers."]

{"sheet":"Sensitivity","index":12,"n_rows":196,"n_cols":23,"rows_kept":196,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[]}
[null,null,"Tanzania: Mafia Island Airport",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Last updated:  8/27/2014"]
[null,null,"Sensitivity Analysis"]
[]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,"Crystal Ball Report - Full"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,"Simulation started on 8/27/2014 at 5:23 PM"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,"Simulation stopped on 8/27/2014 at 5:43 PM"]
[]
[null,null,"Run preferences:",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Crystal Ball data:"]
[null,null,null,"Number of trials run",null,10000,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Assumptions",null,5]
[null,null,null,"Monte Carlo",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"   Correlations",null,2]
[null,null,null,"Random seed",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"   Correlated groups",null,1]
[null,null,null,"Precision control on",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Decision variables",null,0]
[null,null,null,"   Confidence level",null,0.95,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Forecasts",null,3]
[]
[null,null,"Run statistics:",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"User macros executed:"]
[null,null,null,"Total running time (sec)",null,1225.6869654069594,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"TZAMafiaERR 082714.xlsm'!ThisWorkbook.CBAfterSimulation"]
[null,null,null,"Trials/second (average)",null,8.1586900099567785]
[null,null,null,"Random numbers per sec",null,40.793450049783893]
[]
[]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,"Forecasts",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Assumptions"]
[]
[]
[null,"Worksheet: [TZAMafiaERR 082714.xlsm]ERR & Sensitivity Analysis",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Worksheet: [TZAMafiaERR 082714.xlsm]ERR & Sensitivity Analysis"]
[]
[null,"Forecast: Economic rate of return (ERR)",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Cell: D21",null,null,"Assumption: Estimated % reduction in foreign object damage with project",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Cell: D14"]
[]
[null,null,"Summary:",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Normal distribution with parameters:"]
[null,null,null,"Entire range is from -6.7% to 11.6%",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Mean",null,0.5]
[null,null,null,"Base case is 2.3%",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Std. Dev.",null,0.15]
[null,null,null,"After 10,000 trials, the std. error of the mean is 0.0%"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Selected range is from 0% to 100%"]
[]
[]
[]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Correlated with:",null,null,null,null,null,"Coefficient"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Estimated % reduction in maintenance time, with project (D15)",null,null,null,null,0.5]
[]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Assumption: Estimated % reduction in incidents with project",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Cell: D16"]
[]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Normal distribution with parameters:"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Mean",null,0.5]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Std. Dev.",null,0.15]
[]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Selected range is from 0% to 100%"]
[]
[]
[]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Correlated with:",null,null,null,null,null,"Coefficient"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Estimated % reduction in maintenance time, with project (D15)",null,null,null,null,0.05]
[null,null,"Statistics:",null,null,"Forecast values"]
[null,null,null,"Trials",null,10000,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Assumption: Estimated % reduction in maintenance time, with project",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Cell: D15"]
[null,null,null,"Base Case",null,2.2954617262904264E-2]
[null,null,null,"Mean",null,1.2129718473690336E-2,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Normal distribution with parameters:"]
[null,null,null,"Median",null,1.1893856584475504E-2,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Mean",null,0.5]
[null,null,null,"Mode",null,"---",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Std. Dev.",null,0.15]
[null,null,null,"Standard Deviation",null,2.0436135120471356E-2]
[null,null,null,"Variance",null,4.1763561866216275E-4,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Selected range is from 0% to 100%"]
[null,null,null,"Skewness",null,0.17586563215551401]
[null,null,null,"Kurtosis",null,3.6521443989804308]
[null,null,null,"Coeff. of Variability",null,1.6847987993124363]
[null,null,null,"Minimum",null,-6.6557871598752039E-2,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Correlated with:",null,null,null,null,null,"Coefficient"]
[null,null,null,"Maximum",null,0.11587441490132577,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Estimated % reduction in foreign object damage with project (D14)",null,null,null,null,0.5]
[null,null,null,"Range Width",null,0.18243228650007781,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Estimated % reduction in incidents with project (D16)",null,null,null,null,0.05]
[null,null,null,"Mean Std. Error",null,2.0436135120471358E-4]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Assumption: Increased annual airport O&M costs as a percentage of investment costs",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Cell: D17"]
[null,"Forecast: Economic rate of return (ERR) (cont'd)",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Cell: D21"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Triangular distribution with parameters:"]
[null,null,"Percentiles:",null,null,"Forecast values",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Minimum",null,0]
[null,null,null,"0%",null,-6.6557871598752039E-2,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Likeliest",null,5.0000000000000001E-3]
[null,null,null,"10%",null,-1.3022813572838521E-2,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Maximum",null,0.03]
[null,null,null,"20%",null,-4.3115423049118196E-3]
[null,null,null,"30%",null,1.7717270226664805E-3,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Selected range is from -13.5% to 76.5%"]
[null,null,null,"40%",null,7.0707690363494002E-3]
[null,null,null,"50%",null,1.1893699184163E-2]
[null,null,null,"60%",null,1.6684243803731999E-2,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Assumption: One-time increase in arrivals, with project",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Cell: D13"]
[null,null,null,"70%",null,2.1717514364483E-2]
[null,null,null,"80%",null,2.8155699578518E-2,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Lognormal distribution with parameters:"]
[null,null,null,"90%",null,3.7385618009282001E-2,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Location",null,0]
[null,null,null,"100%",null,0.11587441490132599,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Mean",null,0.04]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Std. Dev.",null,1.84E-2]
[null,"Worksheet: [TZAMafiaERR 082714.xlsm]ERR"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Selected range is from 0.0% to 30.0%"]
[null,"Forecast: Net present value (NPV)",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Cell: C54"]
[]
[null,null,"Summary:",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"End of Assumptions"]
[null,null,null,"Entire range is from  (8,696,746) to 1,226,217"]
[null,null,null,"Base case is  (4,992,730)"]
[null,null,null,"After 10,000 trials, the std. error of the mean is 10,494"]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[null,null,"Statistics:",null,null,"Forecast values"]
[null,null,null,"Trials",null,10000]
[null,null,null,"Base Case",null,-4992730.468533339]
[null,null,null,"Mean",null,-5484662.7422396857]
[null,null,null,"Median",null,-5559391.7879914697]
[null,null,null,"Mode",null,"---"]
[null,null,null,"Standard Deviation",null,1049357.1291578871]
[null,null,null,"Variance",null,1101150384514.4827]
[null,null,null,"Skewness",null,0.63660096146132417]
[null,null,null,"Kurtosis",null,4.4144300239300582]
[null,null,null,"Coeff. of Variability",null,-0.19132573477605982]
[null,null,null,"Minimum",null,-8696745.6716899779]
[null,null,null,"Maximum",null,1226216.7716939119]
[null,null,null,"Range Width",null,9922962.4433838893]
[null,null,null,"Mean Std. Error",null,10493.571291578872]
[]
[null,"Forecast: Net present value (NPV) (cont'd)",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Cell: C54"]
[]
[null,null,"Percentiles:",null,null,"Forecast values"]
[null,null,null,"0%",null,-8696745.6716899779]
[null,null,null,"10%",null,-6722703.2707784818]
[null,null,null,"20%",null,-6341842.067409344]
[null,null,null,"30%",null,-6058045.7743551843]
[null,null,null,"40%",null,-5797359.0130904252]
[null,null,null,"50%",null,-5559641.4048671722]
[null,null,null,"60%",null,-5309095.802343782]
[null,null,null,"70%",null,-5044833.8532037474]
[null,null,null,"80%",null,-4696800.7300218465]
[null,null,null,"90%",null,-4170425.5157005275]
[null,null,null,"100%",null,1226216.7716939121]
[]
[null,"Forecast: Present value (PV) of local benefits",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Cell: C56"]
[]
[null,null,"Summary:"]
[null,null,null,"Entire range is from $2,795,587 to $12,718,550"]
[null,null,null,"Base case is $6,499,602"]
[null,null,null,"After 10,000 trials, the std. error of the mean is $10,494"]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[null,null,"Statistics:",null,null,"Forecast values"]
[null,null,null,"Trials",null,10000]
[null,null,null,"Base Case",null,6499602.3856356302]
[null,null,null,"Mean",null,6007670.1119292723]
[null,null,null,"Median",null,5932941.0661774967]
[null,null,null,"Mode",null,"---"]
[null,null,null,"Standard Deviation",null,1049357.1291578864]
[null,null,null,"Variance",null,1101150384514.4812]
[null,null,null,"Skewness",null,0.63660096146135681]
[null,null,null,"Kurtosis",null,4.4144300239301026]
[null,null,null,"Coeff. of Variability",null,0.17466956567308939]
[null,null,null,"Minimum",null,2795587.1824789932]
[null,null,null,"Maximum",null,12718549.625862882]
[null,null,null,"Range Width",null,9922962.4433838874]
[null,null,null,"Mean Std. Error",null,10493.571291578864]
[]
["Forecast: Present value (PV) of local benefits (cont'd)",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Cell: C56"]
[]
[null,null,"Percentiles:",null,null,"Forecast values"]
[null,null,null,"0%",null,2795587.1824789932]
[null,null,null,"10%",null,4769629.5833904874]
[null,null,null,"20%",null,5150490.7867596271]
[null,null,null,"30%",null,5434287.0798137821]
[null,null,null,"40%",null,5694973.8410785431]
[null,null,null,"50%",null,5932691.449301796]
[null,null,null,"60%",null,6183237.0518251872]
[null,null,null,"70%",null,6447499.0009652218]
[null,null,null,"80%",null,6795532.1241471237]
[null,null,null,"90%",null,7321907.3384684399]
[null,null,null,"100%",null,12718549.625862882]
[]
[null,null,null,"End of Forecasts"]

{"sheet":"Beneficiaries","index":13,"n_rows":25,"n_cols":33,"rows_kept":25,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[]}
[null,"Tanzania: Mafia Island Airport Activity",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Last updated: 8/27/2014"]
[null,"Beneficiary Estimates"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,{"$f":"IF('ERR & Sensitivity Analysis'!$I$10=\"N\",\"Note: Current calculations are based on user input and are not the original MCC estimates.\",IF('ERR & Sensitivity Analysis'!$I$14=\"N\",\"Note: Current calculations are based on user input and are not the original MCC estimates.\",\"\"))","v":""}]
[null,"Tanzania Population",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Y0","Y1","Y2","Y3","Y4","Y5","Y6","Y7","Y8","Y9","Y10","Y11","Y12","Y13","Y14","Y15","Y16","Y17","Y18","Y19","Y20"]
[null,"Region",null,"Growth rate","2002 Census",2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,"2012 Census",2013,2014,2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022,2023,2024,2025,2026,2027,2028,2029,2030]
[{"$f":"A23","v":1},"Tanzania Total",null,2.7E-2,34443603,{"$f":"E6*(1+$D6)","v":35373580.280999996},36328666.948586993,37309540.956198841,38316898.562016204,{"$f":"I6*(1+$D6)","v":39351454.823190637},40413944.103416778,41505120.59420903,42625758.850252673,43776654.33920949,44928923,{"$f":"O6*(1+$D6)","v":46142003.920999996},47387838.026866995,48667309.6535924,49981327.014239393,51330822.843623854,52716755.060401693,54140107.447032534,55601890.348102406,57103141.387501165,58644926.204963692,60228339.212497704,61854504.37123514,63524575.989258483,65239739.540968455,67001212.508574598,68810245.246306106,{"$f":"AE6*(1+$D6)","v":70668121.86795637},72576161.158391193]
[{"$f":"A24","v":2},"Pwani Region",null,2.1999999999999999E-2,885017,904487.37400000007,924386.09622800013,944722.5903450161,965506.48733260646,986747.63005392381,1008456.0779151102,1030642.1116292427,1053316.238085086,1076489.1953229578,1098668,1122838.696,1147541.1473119999,1172787.052552864,1198588.3677090269,1224957.3117986256,1251906.3726581954,1279448.3128566758,1307596.1757395228,1336363.2916057922,1365763.2840211196,1395810.0762695842,1426517.8979475151,1457901.2917023604,1489975.1201198124,1522754.5727624483,1556255.1733632223,1590492.7871772132,1625483.6284951121]
[{"$f":"A25","v":3},null,"Mafia Island",{"$f":"((O8/E8)^0.1)-1","v":1.363306389575536E-2},40557,{"$f":"E8*(1+$D8)","v":41109.916172420148},41670.370286347897,42238.46510702146,42814.30480068412,43397.994953684189,43989.642591835436,44589.356200041373,45197.24574218713,45813.422681302523,46438,47071.092221191087,47712.815429085582,48363.287290476685,49022.627076316523,49690.955683585737,50368.395657461209,51055.071213786068,51751.108261845955,52456.634427455851,53171.779076361636,53896.673337960659,54631.450129345729,55376.244179676869,56131.192054885352,56896.432182714518,57672.104878101978,58458.35236890785,59255.318821993751]
[{"$f":"A23","v":1},"Mainland",null,2.7E-2,33461849,34365318.923,35293182.533920996,36246098.462336861,37224743.120819956,38229811.185082093,39262016.087079309,40322090.521430448,41410786.965509064,42528878.213577807,43625354,{"$f":"O9*(1+$D9)","v":44803238.557999998},46012925.999065995,47255275.001040772,48531167.426068865,49841508.946572721,51187229.688130178,52569284.889709689,53988655.581731848,55446349.282438606,56943400.713064447,58480872.532317184,60059856.090689741,61681472.205138355,63346871.954677083,65057237.497453362,66813782.909884594,68617755.048451468,70470434.434759647]
[]
[]
[null,"Households",null,"Avg. HH Size"]
[{"$f":"A24","v":2},null,"Mafia Island",3.9,{"$f":"E8/$D$13","v":10399.23076923077},{"$f":"F8/$D$13","v":10541.004146774398},10684.710329832795,10830.375668467041,10978.026871970287,11127.691013765178,11279.395536368062,11433.168256420866,11589.037369791571,11747.031456744236,11907.179487179488,12069.510825946432,12234.055238227073,12400.842894994023,12569.904378542698,12741.270688098906,12914.973245502875,13091.043900970786,13269.514938934861,13450.419083963039,13633.789506759394,13819.659830246323,14008.064135729674,14199.036969147915,14392.613347406501,14588.828764798594,14787.719199513329,14989.321120232782,15193.67149281891]
[]
[]
[{"$f":"A24","v":2},"Sex Disaggregation",null,"2012 Census","%"]
[null,"Mafia Island",null,{"$f":"O8","v":46438},{"$f":"D17/$D$17","v":1}]
[null,null,"Male",22954,{"$f":"D18/$D$17","v":0.49429346655756062}]
[null,null,"Female",23484,0.50570653344243943]
[]
[]
[null,"Notes"]
[1,"Tanzania National Bureau of Statistics (2013), Table 2."]
[2,"Tanzania National Bureau of Statistics (2013), Table 6.0."]
[3,"Intercensal growth rate for Mafia Island calculated using 2002 and 2012 Tanzania Census data."]

{"sheet":"Poverty Scorecard","index":14,"n_rows":50,"n_cols":20,"rows_kept":50,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[[25,19,29,19],[3,1,3,8],[6,1,6,7],[7,1,7,7],[13,4,13,7],[4,2,4,10]]}
[null,0,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Last updated: 8/27/2014"]
[]
[]
[null,"Poverty Scorecard"]
[null,null,{"$f":"IF('ERR & Sensitivity Analysis'!$I$10=\"N\",\"Note: Current calculations are based on user input and are not the original MCC estimates.\",IF('ERR & Sensitivity Analysis'!$I$14=\"N\",\"Note: Current calculations are based on user input and are not the original MCC estimates.\",\"\"))","v":""}]
[]
[null,"Tanzania: Mafia Island Airport Activity"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Bar Chart Data"]
[null,null,"2013 US$",null,"2005 PPP $",null,null,null,null,null,"Activity/Sub-activity","Mafia Island Airport Activity","National Income Distribution"]
[null,"MCC Cost (Millions USD)",{"$f":"Costs!N17/10^6","v":14.727256636786327},null,{"$f":"C10*(99.991/106.442)","v":13.834699821206872},null,null,null,null,null,"Consump. <$1.25/day",{"$f":"E33","v":1.9165082211103298E-2},{"$f":"R18","v":0.12986127040254}]
[null,"20-Year ERR",{"$f":"ERR","v":2.2954617262904264E-2},null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Consump. >=$1.25/day and <$2/day",{"$f":"F33-E33","v":7.0753624449663516E-2},{"$f":"R19","v":0.20797313119002916}]
[null,"Present Value (PV) of Investment Costs (Millions USD)",{"$f":"Costs!H19/10^6","v":11.49233285416897},null,{"$f":"C12*(99.991/106.442)","v":10.795831104462614},null,null,null,null,null,"Consump. >=$2/day and <$4/day",{"$f":"G33","v":0.16290600544364872},0.30390330026229651]
[null,"Present Value (PV) of Benefit Stream (Millions USD)",{"$f":"PV_ben/10^6","v":6.4996023856356304},null,6.1056889399118051,null,null,null,null,null,"Consump. >$4/day",{"$f":"H33","v":0.18850679626359002},0.35826229814513433]
[null,null,null,null,"Consumption per day (2005 PPP $)"]
[null,"Beneficiaries","Total",null,"< $1.25","< $2 1 ","$2-$4","> $4"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"National Poverty Statistics"]
[null,"Beneficiary Households in Year 20 (#)",{"$f":"Beneficiaries!AG13","v":15193.67149281891},null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Poverty Category","% of National HH","Avg. HH Size","% of Population","2030 Est. Pop","Mean Daily Income/Capita","Total Income/Group","Income Share/Group"]
[null,"Beneficiary Individuals in Year 20 (#)",{"$f":"Beneficiaries!AG8","v":59255.318821993751},null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"<$1.25 / day",0.28010000000000002,5.8737269999999997,{"$f":"(L18*M18)/SUMPRODUCT(L$18:L$21,M$18:M$21)","v":0.33714634305726604},{"$f":"N18*Beneficiaries!$AG$6","v":24468787.327686384},0.88483239999999996,{"$f":"O18*P18","v":21650775.816246331},{"$f":"Q18/SUM(Q$18:Q$21)","v":0.12986127040254}]
[null,"National Population in Year 20 2 (#)",{"$f":"Beneficiaries!AG6","v":72576161.158391193},null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"$1.25 - $1.99 / day",0.2661,5.5066410000000001,{"$f":"(L19*M19)/SUMPRODUCT(L$18:L$21,M$18:M$21)","v":0.30027780021585587},{"$f":"N19*Beneficiaries!$AG$6","v":21793010.020753149},1.5910500000000001,{"$f":"O19*P19","v":34673768.5935193},{"$f":"Q19/SUM(Q$18:Q$21)","v":0.20797313119002916}]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"$2 - $4 / day",0.27439999999999998,4.5063510000000004,{"$f":"(L20*M20)/SUMPRODUCT(L$18:L$21,M$18:M$21)","v":0.25339655722974685},{"$f":"N20*Beneficiaries!$AG$6","v":18390549.374487605},2.7550819999999998,50667471.551762059,{"$f":"Q20/SUM(Q$18:Q$21)","v":0.30390330026229651}]
[null,"Beneficiary Population by Poverty Level 3 (%)",null,null,{"$f":"N26","v":0.12400562240291189},{"$f":"N30","v":0.429213461991377},{"$f":"N28","v":0.40072144146812699},{"$f":"N29","v":0.17006509654049595},null,null,">$4 / day",0.17929999999999999,2.9714499999999999,{"$f":"(L21*M21)/SUMPRODUCT(L$18:L$21,M$18:M$21)","v":0.10917929949713137},{"$f":"N21*Beneficiaries!$AG$6","v":7923814.4354640646},7.5380779999999996,59730331.272054084,{"$f":"Q21/SUM(Q$18:Q$21)","v":0.35826229814513433}]
[null,"National Population by Poverty Level 3 (%)",null,null,{"$f":"N18","v":0.33714634305726604},{"$f":"N22","v":0.63742414327312191},{"$f":"N20","v":0.25339655722974685},{"$f":"N21","v":0.10917929949713137},null,null,"< $2.00 / day",{"$f":"L18+L19","v":0.54620000000000002},5.701308,{"$f":"N18+N19","v":0.63742414327312191},{"$f":"N22*Beneficiaries!$AG$6","v":46261797.34843953},1.206834,{"$f":"O22*P22","v":55830309.941206671},{"$f":"R18+R19","v":0.33783440159256917}]
[]
[null,"The Magnitude of the Benefits5",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Beneficiary Poverty Statistics"]
[null,"PV of Benefit Stream Per Beneficiary (2013 US$) ",{"$f":"(C13*10^6)/C18","v":109.68808395345563},null,{"$f":"C25*S26","v":4.763270028736466},{"$f":"C25*S30","v":22.348303844573998},{"$f":"C25*S28","v":40.488492806013419},{"$f":"C25*S29","v":46.851287302868215},null,null,"Poverty Category","% of Beneficiary HH","Avg. HH Size","% of Ben. Pop.","2030 Est. Ben.","Mean Daily Income/Capita","Total Income/Group","Income Share/Group","Total Benefits by Pov Group ","% female"]
[null,"PV of Benefit Stream Per Beneficiary (2005 PPP $) ",{"$f":"E13*10^6/C18","v":103.04035251676953},null,{"$f":"C26*S26","v":4.4745883527497412},{"$f":"C26*S30","v":20.993867549677748},{"$f":"C26*S28","v":38.034656283854943},{"$f":"C26*S29","v":44.011828683236843},null,null,"<$1.25 / day",0.10050000000000001,5.4534440000000002,{"$f":"(L26*M26)/SUMPRODUCT(L$26:L$29,M$26:M$29)","v":0.12400562240291189},{"$f":"N26*Beneficiaries!$AG$8","v":7347.9926912043147},1.052943,{"$f":"O26*P26","v":7737.0174682547449},{"$f":"Q26/SUM(Q$28:Q$30)","v":4.3425592434978469E-2},{"$f":"R26","v":4.3425592434978469E-2},{"$f":"Beneficiaries!E19","v":0.50570653344243943}]
[null,"PV of Benefit Stream as Share of Annual Consumption (%)",{"$f":"C25/(3.452294*365)","v":8.7048003009772099E-2},null,{"$f":"E26/(P26*365)","v":1.1642744357403107E-2},{"$f":"F26/(P30*365)","v":3.9844608367727533E-2},{"$f":"G26/(P28*365)","v":3.7623272325383858E-2},{"$f":"H26/(P29*365)","v":1.5967215072754469E-2},null,null,"$1.25 - $1.99 / day",0.28889999999999999,4.6692130000000001,{"$f":"(L27*M27)/SUMPRODUCT(L$26:L$29,M$26:M$29)","v":0.30520783958846509},{"$f":"N27*Beneficiaries!$AG$8","v":18085.187841786425},1.5793870000000001,{"$f":"O27*P27","v":28563.510569875536},{"$f":"Q27/SUM(Q$26:Q$29)","v":0.16031854310901683},{"$f":"R27","v":0.16031854310901683}]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"$2 - $4 / day",0.3599,4.9210330000000004,0.40072144146812699,{"$f":"N28*Beneficiaries!$AG$8","v":23744.876773002772},2.7696830000000001,65765.781535280636,0.36912389520081373,0.36912389520081373]
[null,"Cost Effectiveness",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,">$4 / day",0.25069999999999998,2.9981710000000001,0.17006509654049595,{"$f":"N29*Beneficiaries!$AG$8","v":10077.261516000233},7.5517459999999996,76100.9193444087,0.42713196925519098,0.42713196925519098]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"< $2.00 / day",{"$f":"L26+L27","v":0.38939999999999997},4.8715739999999998,{"$f":"N26+N27","v":0.429213461991377},{"$f":"N30*Beneficiaries!$AG$8","v":25433.18053299074},1.4435439999999999,{"$f":"Q26+Q27","v":36300.52803813028},0.20374413554399529,0.20374413554399529]
[]
[null,"PV of Benefit Stream/PV of All Costs",{"$f":"(C13*10^6)/PV_cost","v":0.54757445213608258}]
[null,"PV of Benefit Stream/MCC Costs",{"$f":"C13/C10","v":0.44133150836800555},null,{"$f":"C33*S26","v":1.9165082211103298E-2},{"$f":"C33*S30","v":8.9918706660766817E-2},{"$f":"C33*S28","v":0.16290600544364872},{"$f":"C33*S29","v":0.18850679626359002}]
[]
[]
[null,"Percent of Project Participants Who Are Female6",{"$f":"T26","v":0.50570653344243943}]
[]
[null,"Average Annual Consumption of Beneficiaries (2005 PPP $)",{"$f":"2.778978*365","v":1014.32697}]
[null,"National Average Income per capita 4 (2005 PPP $)",{"$f":"2.778978*365","v":1014.32697}]
[]
[null,"National Population (2013)",46142003.920999996]
[]
[null,"NB: PV of benefits based on 10% discount rate, exclude MCC costs, and include local costs"]
[null,"NB: Beneficiaries for this project are defined as all residents of Mafia Island"]
[null,"1    The beneficiaries and population living on less than $2 per day include those under $1.25 per day"]
[null,"2    Based on 2012 Tanzania Census counts, using the intercensal growth rate (2002-2012) to project to 2030."]
[null,"3    Based on MCC calculations using the 2010-11 Tanzania Panel Survey."]
[null,"4  Based on MCC calculations using the 2010-11 Tanzania Panel Survey."]
[null,"5   The distribution of benefits is based on current distribution of income."]
[null,"6   Based on 2012 Tanzania Census data."]

{"sheet":"References","index":15,"n_rows":14,"n_cols":4,"rows_kept":14,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[]}
[null,"Tanzania: Mafia Island Airport",null,"Last updated:  8/27/2014"]
[null,"References"]
[]
[]
[null,"Aircraft Cost Calculator (2014).  Cessna Caravan EX Report. Mequon, WI.  https://www.aircraftcostcalculator.com/media/145737/acc_report_cessna_caravan_operating_costs.pdf. Accessed 8/14/14."]
[null,"Busalama, Abel (2012).  Mafia Island Airport Upgrade Performance Evaluation Baseline Report. Submitted to MCA-Tanzania October 2012."]
[null,"Coastal Aviation. http://www.coastal.co.tz/"]
[null,"Controller.com. 2014 Cessna Grand Caravan EX - new.  http://www.controller.com/listingsdetail/aircraft-for-sale/CESSNA-GRAND-CARAVAN-EX/2013-CESSNA-GRAND-CARAVAN-EX/1278093.htm. Accessed 8/13/14."]
[null,"International Civil Aviation Organization (2013).  Africa Civil Aviation Policy.  AU/TPT/EXP/2A2 (II). Second Session of the Africa Union Conference of Ministers Responsible for Transport."]
[null,"InterVISTAS Consulting Inc. (2007).  Estimating Air Travel Demand Elasticities.  Produced for IATA.  https://www.iata.org/whatwedo/Documents/economics/Intervistas_Elasticity_Study_2007.pdf"]
[null,"McCreary, Iain (2010). Runway Safety: FOD, Birds, and the Case for Automated Scanning.  Washington, DC: Insight SRI."]
[null,"Tanzania Civil Aviation Authority (2008).  Annual Report for the Year 2006/2007. "]
[null,"Tanzania National Bureau of Statistics (2013).  2012 Population and Housing Census: Population Distribution by Administrative Areas.  Dar es Salaam, Tanzania."]
[null,"UK Civil Aviation Authority (2013).  Global Fatal Accident Review, 2002 to 2011.  CAP 1036.  Norwich, UK."]